With peace talks in Alaska falling via, US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are actually eyeing Hungary because the venue for renewed discussions on ending the Ukraine battle. Nevertheless, it is the selection of location that has raised eyebrows globally.
Putin at present faces a global arrest warrant issued by the Worldwide Felony Court docket (ICC) in 2023 over alleged battle crimes, together with the illegal deportation of Ukrainian youngsters. Theoretically, setting foot in Hungary, and even flying via the airspace of ICC signatories, may expose him to arrest.
ICC WARRANT COMPLICATES PLANS
The ICC, missing its personal enforcement physique, depends on member states to hold out arrests. Hungary, Romania, and Serbia, all neighbouring international locations, are technically obliged to detain Putin if his plane crosses their airspace. Germany has already urged Budapest to honour its authorized obligations.
Regardless of this, such an arrest stays unlikely. Though Hungary is a signatory to the Rome Statute that established the ICC, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán started the method of withdrawing from the treaty in April. The withdrawal, nonetheless, takes a full yr to return into impact, that means Hungary stays certain by ICC obligations, at the least for now.
Nonetheless, Orbán has lengthy maintained robust ties with each Trump and Putin. Hungary has reportedly supplied assurances of Putin’s security, citing the April go to of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, one other chief going through ICC fees, as precedent.
ORBÁN’S POLITICAL CALCULATIONS
Orbán, whose authorities has been in energy for 15 years, seems to be leveraging the summit as a home distraction amid rising meals costs and financial stagnation. He just lately claimed Budapest was “basically the one place in Europe the place such a gathering will be held.”
He has already held preliminary conversations with each leaders and is alleged to be getting ready the bottom for the proposed summit.
LOGISTICAL AND LEGAL OBSTACLES
If Putin agrees to attend the assembly in Budapest, it will mark his first journey to an EU nation because the Ukraine invasion started almost 4 years in the past. The Kremlin has remained cautious, stating that “many questions nonetheless should be resolved” earlier than any go to is confirmed.
Travelling to Alaska for the earlier talks was comparatively simple, as Russian plane may keep away from EU and NATO-controlled airspace. A visit to Hungary is significantly extra advanced attributable to EU sanctions that ban Russian planes from flying via or touchdown in member states, Hungary included. Whereas exemptions will be made, it will place the EU in a politically awkward place, both compromising its stance on Russia or being seen as obstructing a possible peace course of.
POSSIBLE ROUTES TO BUDAPEST
The direct three-hour flight path from Moscow to Budapest by way of Belarus and western Ukraine is off the desk. Ukrainian airspace stays an energetic battle zone, making it extremely harmful and unpredictable.
A second possibility includes a five-hour route over Belarus, Poland, and Slovakia. Whereas Belarus poses no drawback for Putin, Poland, an ICC supporter and NATO member, may very well be a big danger. Warsaw just lately warned Moscow towards violations after Russian drones breached its airspace. Slovakia, a significant purchaser of Russian power, is much less prone to intervene.
Essentially the most viable possibility seems to be an extended, eight-hour journey via Turkey, one of many few international locations sustaining balanced relations with each Russia and the West, then onward over Greece, throughout the Mediterranean and Adriatic Seas, into Montenegro, and eventually via Serbia into Hungary. Serbia, regardless of Western strain, continues to align intently with Moscow.
This route mirrors the one taken by Netanyahu on his technique to the UN Normal Meeting in New York final month, the place he rigorously averted hostile or ICC-compliant international locations.
A DELICATE BALANCING ACT
Finally, Putin’s potential go to hinges on intricate geopolitical manoeuvring and behind-the-scenes diplomacy, notably from the US, which can have to press NATO allies to allow secure passage.
For the EU, the scenario presents a dilemma — permit a suspected battle felony to journey freely for the sake of diplomacy, or danger being painted as an impediment to peace.