US President Donald Trump has introduced a brand new settlement for joint improvement of Pakistan’s oil reserves, hailing it as a “vital starting” to a long-term vitality partnership. Nevertheless, ultimately, the US might discover itself investing in a partnership that yields little vitality, much less loyalty, and quite a lot of geopolitical turbulence, in response to an article posted on ‘Directus’, a web based platform based mostly in Greece.
The US overseas coverage announcement, made through Trump’s Fact Social platform, was adopted by a broader commerce settlement and a discount in tariffs on Pakistani imports, from 29 per cent to 19 per cent. On the floor, this may increasingly seem like a practical transfer to deepen financial ties and counterbalance China’s rising affect in South Asia. However beneath the fanfare lies a troubling strategic miscalculation, the Athens-datelined article factors out.
It observes that Trump’s enthusiasm for Pakistan’s “large” oil reserves is puzzling, because the Asian nation’s crude oil reserves are estimated at a mere 234 and 353 million barrels, inserting it round fiftieth globally. Pakistan relies on imports to satisfy its oil wants and presently imports oil from the US as effectively.
Even when oil extraction have been to succeed, significantly in Balochistan, the place reserves are believed to exist, the results might be destabilising. Balochistan has lengthy been a flashpoint of ethnic and political unrest, exacerbated by perceptions of exploitation by overseas powers. China’s heavy footprint within the area by means of the China-Pakistan Financial Hall (CPEC) has already fuelled resentment. US involvement in useful resource extraction may additional alienate native populations and entangle Washington in a risky home battle, the article factors out.
Balochistan holds strategic curiosity for Washington as a possible vantage level to observe Iranian actions. However leveraging the province for geopolitical acquire dangers inflaming tensions in a area already bristling with anti-Western sentiment.
The article states that Pakistan Military Chief Asim Munir’s go to to Washington might seem as a flattering gesture, however “it’s emblematic of a deeper, extra troubling development — Washington’s reactive pivot towards Islamabad, seemingly pushed by frustration with New Delhi’s assertive posture.”
India’s agency stance in commerce negotiations, significantly its refusal to just accept Trump’s proposed commerce deal, has clearly unsettled Washington. Compounding that is India’s large and unapologetic buy of Russian oil, which has challenged Western expectations and signalled a fiercely unbiased vitality technique. In response, the US seems to be rekindling ties with Pakistan, a rustic whose assist was solely lately slashed by the identical administration now courting it. This rekindled bonhomie, nevertheless, will not be rooted in strategic foresight. It’s a knee-jerk response, an try to play the outdated India-versus-Pakistan card to stress New Delhi into compliance. However this strategy will not be solely outdated; it’s dangerously myopic, it factors out.
India will not be merely a regional counterweight to China; it’s a long-term strategic associate for the US. The 2 nations share deep and increasing cooperation throughout crucial sectors — superior know-how, clear vitality, greater training, and defence. American and Indian non-public industries are more and more intertwined, with strong business-to-business ties and joint ventures that span Silicon Valley to Bengaluru. Defence agreements between the 2 international locations have reached an unprecedented scale, reflecting mutual belief and shared safety pursuits. To jeopardise this multifaceted partnership for the sake of short-term leverage over commerce or oil diplomacy with Pakistan is to sacrifice strategic depth for tactical theatrics.
The article additionally highlights that Pakistan is an unreliable ally given its overseas coverage playbook, which follows a dual-track diplomacy that has enabled the nation to extract advantages from each Beijing and Washington with out committing absolutely to both. Any US try to scale back Pakistan’s reliance on China should reckon with this deeply ingrained strategic tradition. Pakistan will proceed to play each side, leveraging American know-how and markets whereas welcoming Chinese language infrastructure and funding.
Islamabad has lengthy mastered the artwork of strategic hedging, aligning opportunistically with international powers based mostly on shifting priorities. Through the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, Pakistan was America’s indispensable ally. When China launched its Belt and Highway Initiative, Pakistan turned its flagship associate. In counter-terrorism efforts, Pakistani forces cooperated with the West. And when China wanted maritime entry, Gwadar Port was made obtainable.
The Trump-led oil settlement could also be framed as a daring step towards vitality cooperation, but it surely dangers turning into one other chapter in an extended historical past of American misjudgments in South Asia. The financial rationale is shaky, the geopolitical dangers are excessive, and the strategic payoff is unsure. If Washington really seeks to counter China’s affect and stabilise the area, it should look past transactional offers and perceive the deeper currents shaping Pakistan’s overseas coverage, the article states.