Iran-Israel Battle: Tehran is simmering. One other blow. This time, the suspicion doesn’t level to Tel Aviv alone. All eyes are on Baku (Azerbaijan). In back-to-back airstrikes that rattled Tehran and past, Israel’s fighter jets appeared to succeed in deep into Iranian airspace with startling ease. Tehran now needs to know the way, and extra importantly, from the place.
Behind closed doorways, Iran’s navy and intelligence brass have drawn a line. They are saying it could have been not possible for Israel to hold out precision strikes with out regional assist. That assist, Tehran claims, got here from Azerbaijan. The Caspian Sea hall is now underneath scrutiny.
The accusations come in the midst of rising hostilities, and a bruised Iranian management nonetheless grappling with unrest, financial blows and international incursions. President Masoud Pezeshkian has spoken on to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. The message was pointed. Iran needs an instantaneous investigation. Did Israeli jets fly over Azerbaijani territory? Did drones enter from there?
Iran’s envoy to Armenia, Mehdi Sobhani, didn’t mince phrases. In a press release, he stated, “We’ve acquired data {that a} small variety of drones entered Iranian territory from neighbouring nations. Our president requested for a severe investigation. We’ll watch for the findings.”
He added a warning. “Our enemy doesn’t comply with guidelines. They don’t respect borders. Even when Azerbaijan didn’t give consent, there’s a probability Israel used the second,” he stated.
Azerbaijan denied the whole lot. Their international ministry hit again laborious. Spokesperson Aykhan Hajizada known as Sobhani’s assertion a “provocation”. The official response was: “Azerbaijan categorically refutes these claims. Our airspace was not used. The allegations lack proof.”
However the suspicion lingers. For Iran, the long-standing ties between Azerbaijan and Israel have at all times been a supply of discomfort. Quiet, however plain. And now, louder than ever.
For the reason that Nineteen Nineties, Azerbaijan has traded oil for firepower. Over 60% of Israel’s crude oil flows by way of Baku. In return, Israel’s defence giants have flooded Azerbaijan with superior weapons – loitering drones, air defence programs, precision rockets and surveillance plane.
The numbers inform a narrative. Between 2016 and 2021, practically 69% of Azerbaijan’s arms imports got here from Israel. A determine properly over $5 billion. A few of these very programs helped Azerbaijan dominate within the 2020 and 2023 Nagorno-Karabakh conflicts.
The offers didn’t cease there. Stories say Mossad has a quiet presence in Azerbaijan. A ahead base. A listening put up. Presumably even an airfield prepared, if ever wanted for a strike throughout the border. In accordance with Israeli media, the stolen Iranian nuclear archive was smuggled out through Azerbaijan.
Tehran now feels surrounded. Squeezed. Air defence programs in Isfahan and Kermanshah had been reportedly hit from the west. Drones might have slipped by way of from Iraq. However probably the most direct flight paths – from the Caspian, by way of Azerbaijan – can’t be ignored.
Iran’s allies – Russia, Armenia and Turkmenistan – are unlikely to supply that entry, which leaves one risk. And that’s Baku.
What makes the scenario extra flamable is timing. Since October 2023, Israel has been preventing on a number of fronts – Gaza and Lebanon. And now, probably Tehran. Gas is vital. So are ahead working choices. Azerbaijan gives each.
Within the bigger chessboard of the area, the energy-for-arms pact has turn into greater than a commerce. It’s a shift in technique. A deep realignment.
In Tehran, navy planners are adjusting. The concept of a “northern entrance” is not fiction. It’s a actual risk. One that would carry Mossad drones, air raids or worse.
As accusations fly and diplomats scramble, one factor is obvious – that is not nearly two nations. The Caspian has turn into a hall of battle. And if Tehran’s claims are confirmed true, it may mark a brand new part in an already harmful shadow struggle.