New Delhi: The title Fordow has been whispered in intelligence circles for years. Buried deep below Iranian mountains, hidden from satellites, constructed to outlive. Western businesses first uncovered it in 2009. Since then, it has been one of the carefully watched nuclear websites on the earth.
Now it’s on the coronary heart of a query echoing throughout diplomatic and protection briefings – did the U.S. airstrikes actually obliterate Iran’s nuclear ambition?
A leaked U.S. Protection Intelligence Company (DIA) report affords an early estimate. It suggests the assaults delayed Iran’s nuclear progress by months, not years. That issues. However it’s removed from decisive.
The report cautions that the estimate is tentative. Visibility is poor. Harm underground is troublesome to evaluate. The ability was designed to be impenetrable, fortified with thick concrete and rock. Bombs fell. However they could not have breached the deepest chambers.
The bombs used have been bunker-busters, deployed operationally for the primary time. Large. Highly effective. But maybe not highly effective sufficient.
Satellite tv for pc photos present craters. Mud clouds. However the actual work – the uranium enrichment – occurs under. Centrifuges spinning at blistering speeds, refining uranium. Delicate machines. Even shockwaves can knock them off alignment.
Some could also be broken. Many would possibly nonetheless be intact.
Fordow was constructed for a second like this. Simply earlier than the airstrikes, surveillance picked up truck actions. A number of convoys left the location. What they carried will not be confirmed. However indicators counsel enriched uranium was moved.
One other web site, recognized to insiders as “Pickaxe”, is drawing consideration now. Iran may be relocating some centrifuges there. Probably as backup. However the scale is unclear. It doesn’t seem massive sufficient to renew high-volume enrichment shortly.
Nonetheless, even with enriched uranium, Iran would wish far more to construct a bomb. Weaponisation. Supply techniques. Testing. All require excessive precision, time and experience.
Earlier than the strikes, Israel focused and assassinated a number of Iranian nuclear scientists. That call was a part of a method. To not cease the programme fully, however to gradual it down.
So, what’s the actual affect?
U.S. officers say injury was carried out. However they admit key components of the programme stay intact. The DIA’s report makes use of phrases like “restricted degradation” and “momentary disruption”. The centrifuge halls could also be offline. However the information, the fabric and the intent haven’t disappeared.
Different instruments at the moment are in play. Seismic screens would possibly choose up underground blasts. Airborne sensors can detect radiation leaks. Intercepted messages could reveal inner panic or cover-ups.
Nonetheless, no concrete proof has surfaced but.
Iran says its stockpile of 60% enriched uranium has been moved to safer places. That stage is alarmingly near weapons-grade. Consultants estimate Iran already has sufficient materials for a number of bombs if it chooses to go that route.
Within the last hours earlier than the assaults, Iran introduced a brand new underground facility was practically operational. Its location stays secret. However its existence provides one other layer of uncertainty.
The Iranian parliament just lately voted to cut back cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog, the IAEA. If handed into legislation, this may carry Iran nearer to exiting the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Hardliners see this as a possibility. They need Iran to stroll away from international agreements. They imagine survival lies in deterrence. And deterrence, for them, means a nuclear weapon.
Khamenei’s circle sees the assault as proof that negotiations can’t be trusted. However pragmatists contained in the regime fear. They see isolation, extra sanctions, extra financial ache.
The airstrikes could have delayed Iran’s timeline. However they haven’t erased the programme. The fabric nonetheless exists. The experience stays. And if Iran decides to rebuild, it is aware of how.
Within the coming weeks, intelligence businesses will hunt for brand new clues. Drones will scan ridges. Satellites will comb shadows. Spies will pay attention for chatter.
If Iran resumes work secretly or overtly, one other conflict could observe. This story will not be over. It has paused for now.