Beijing/Ankara/New Delhi: Final 12 months, Erdogan formally pitched Turkey’s entry into BRICS – a bloc seen because the International South’s reply to the G7. It was a surprising transfer for a NATO member. Many had been shocked. Western observers referred to as it posturing. However Erdogan meant each phrase. He had spoken overtly, many times, of his need to deliver Turkey into BRICS. Now, that door is all however shut.
A senior Brazilian diplomat has revealed what Ankara had lengthy feared however wouldn’t admit publicly: “China and India privately opposed Turkey’s full BRICS membership final 12 months.”
Each international locations, he stated, raised objections behind closed doorways. No vetoes, no press statements. Simply silence and quiet rejection.
For BRICS, unanimity is non-negotiable. One objection is sufficient to hold a rustic out. India by no means formally blocked Turkey’s entry, however the indicators had been clear. New Delhi has lengthy seen Ankara with suspicion, particularly over its repeated help for Pakistan on the Kashmir challenge.
Then got here the ultimate straw.
In Might this 12 months, when tensions flared between India and Pakistan, Turkey overtly backed Islamabad. Indian officers noticed it as interference. The belief, if any existed, was damaged.
Turkey’s International Minister Hakan Fidan nonetheless confirmed up on the BRICS summit in Brazil this 12 months. However Erdogan stayed away. The message was clear. No seat on the desk. No invitation to hitch. No illusions anymore.
Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa – these are the founding 5. Final 12 months, BRICS added 5 extra – Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the UAE. That enlargement closed the gates for now.
Russian International Minister Sergey Lavrov had warned in 2023, “BRICS is just not one other spherical of enlargement after this.”
Even Lavrov’s provide to incorporate Turkey in a separate checklist of “accomplice international locations” was seen as comfort, not inclusion.
The Erdogan downside runs deeper than Kashmir. For India, Turkey has sided too typically with its enemies. For China, the difficulty lies in unpredictability. Erdogan switches positions often. In a single breath, he denounces the West. Within the subsequent, he tries to rebuild ties with NATO.
“Erdogan can’t be trusted. He’s actively reviving the Ottoman Empire theme, attempting to broaden Turkish affect throughout Europe, the Caucasus and the Arab world. He competes with Saudi Arabia and Iran. His ambitions unsettle everybody,” says Dr. Manan Dwivedi, professor on the Indian Institute of Public Administration.
Add to that Turkey’s fragile relationship with Washington. With U.S. President Donald Trump eyeing a comeback, Ankara’s balancing act appears even riskier. Trump has referred to as BRICS an “anti-American bloc” and has threatened large tariffs if it ever launches a joint foreign money.
For Erdogan, meaning strolling a tightrope. Courting BRICS might alienate Trump. Angering him might damage Turkey’s economic system. Both method, the BRICS dream is popping right into a diplomatic nightmare.
The decision from New Delhi and Beijing is now set in stone. BRICS is off-limits. Ankara is out. Erdogan’s empire fantasy simply hit a wall.