New Delhi: The flags could not fly at borders, however the numbers inform one other story. In finance corridors of Islamabad, a spreadsheet has been making rounds, one which reveals one thing few anticipated this 12 months. Regardless of frozen ties and public outrage, Pakistan imported extra items from India in FY25 than in any 12 months for the reason that 2019 fallout.
The worth? A pointy $220.58 million price of products crossed into Pakistan from throughout the jap border. Final 12 months, it was barely decrease, $206.89 million. The 12 months earlier than that, it was at $190.04 million. The numbers are rising, and few within the ministries are keen to talk overtly about it.
“Folks assume commerce with India is lifeless. It’s not. It has moved underground into the technicalities. You possibly can droop official channels. You possibly can block vehicles. However you can not cease market demand,” stated a former commerce official on situation of anonymity.
Pakistan’s exports to India, then again, barely moved. Solely $1.43 million price of Pakistani items went throughout this 12 months. That imbalance, over $200 million in favour of India, was not solely an anomaly. It grew to become a sample in a broader regional disaster.
The whole commerce deficit with 9 neighbouring nations hit $12.297 billion by June 2025. Final 12 months, it was $9.502 billion. The surge of 29.42 % isn’t any rounding error. And neither is the pattern behind it.
Even a 12 months earlier, the indicators had been there. FY24’s regional deficit had ballooned 49 % from $6.382 billion the 12 months earlier than. Officers cited greater imports from China, India and Bangladesh as the principle purpose. That clarification has not modified. What has modified is the diploma.
Imports from these neighbours, mixed, climbed to $16.698 billion in FY25. The earlier 12 months, that quantity stood at $13.838 billion. In the meantime, exports to those similar nations barely crept up. $4.401 billion price of Pakistani items had been exported to 9 regional nations in FY25. Final 12 months, it was $4.336 billion.
The distinction isn’t solely numerical but additionally political. “We’re shopping for greater than we promote. We’re importing the place we needs to be producing. That could be a nationwide weak spot,” stated a former Ministry of Commerce advisor.
Pakistan’s largest commerce companion, China sits on the centre of this imbalance. Imports from Beijing alone hit $16.312 billion in FY25. The 12 months earlier than, it was $13.504 billion. And in FY23? Simply $9.662 billion. It’s a pattern climbing sooner than any manufacturing restoration in Pakistan can match.
On the similar time, Pakistan’s exports to China have begun slipping. In FY25, the nation shipped solely $2.476 billion price of products to its largest financial ally. Final 12 months, it was $2.709 billion. The drop of 8.6 % could seem small, however inside Pakistan’s commerce group, it has sounded quiet alarms.
“China’s demand is shifting. They’re wanting elsewhere for cotton, seafood and electronics. We can not maintain counting on the identical export combine,” stated a Karachi-based exporter who offers in bulk seafood shipments to Guangdong.
Elsewhere, there’s some reduction. Pakistan’s exports to Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka have proven indicators of life in FY25. These markets, lengthy neglected, are absorbing extra Pakistani items this 12 months. However the quantity isn’t sufficient to cowl the yawning deficit with Beijing or the move from New Delhi.
9 neighbours – Afghanistan, China, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, India, Iran, Nepal, Bhutan and the Maldives – make up the area. And in all, Pakistan’s commerce hole with them is an financial challenge and turning into political foreign money in a rustic nonetheless struggling to exit an Worldwide Financial Fund (IMF) bailout cycle and a fragile post-election coalition.
The numbers don’t lie. And neither does the silence. Behind closed doorways in Islamabad, the murmurs are rising louder. Pakistan is shedding not solely {dollars} however leverage, market entry and in lots of instances, public belief.
And as commerce with India rebounds behind the scenes and China pulls the ladder greater with each passing 12 months, a query begins to kind within the markets – how for much longer can Pakistan afford to import its approach out of this disaster?