U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to the media throughout a tour of the Federal Reserve Board constructing, which is at the moment present process renovations, in Washington, D.C., U.S., July 24, 2025.
Kent Nishimura | Reuters
I feel most would agree that the information cycle has been relentless for many of 2025, however sure tales do appear just a little “Groundhog Day” in the meanwhile.
Earlier this month, I wrote concerning the conundrum dealing with the newsroom over methods to method President Donald Trump’s then-trade speak deadline of July 9. Now, on the finish of the month, we discover ourselves in the same place, however this time the date we’re all watching is August 1.
Why? As soon as once more, it is one other deadline for international locations throughout the globe to attempt to agree a commerce truce with the US, with the European Union specifically focus this time spherical.
Debate within the newsroom resurfaces … when is a deadline not a deadline?
The week has turn out to be even trickier to foretell, with talks between the U.S. and China now taking heart stage in Stockholm on Monday and Tuesday — doubtlessly additional complicating the image for Europe.
A U.S. commerce settlement with the European Union has appeared tantalizingly shut, with CNBC’s Silvia Amaro reporting {that a} 15% baseline tariff price is the base-case state of affairs, in accordance with an EU diplomat. These reviews drove inventory markets throughout Europe and the U.S. greater final week.
On Friday, nevertheless, Trump instructed reporters there was solely a “50-50 likelihood” of a deal.
As CNBC’s Holly Ellyatt explains, the EU is maintaining its so-called “commerce bazooka” — or Anti Coercion Instrument — heat in case an settlement isn’t reached by the August deadline.
Earnings, development and inflation
The company world is crying out for an settlement, piling strain on the European Union to place an finish to the uncertainty. Puma, VW, Michelin and different corporates throughout Europe have downgraded their outlooks citing the affect of tariffs and the continued strain the restrictions are placing on these companies.
Puma shares
On the info entrance, GDP development charges for France, Spain, Germany and Italy can be launched on Wednesday, offering perception into the broader affect of the market uncertainty.
Final week, the tough financial circumstances noticed the European Central Financial institution go for a hawkish maintain of the benchmark price at 2%, with President Christine Lagarde saying the ECB is “in a very good place to carry and watch how dangers develop over the following few months.”
And so Friday August 1st can be a vital date for market individuals and corporates (and the newsroom)… till it is not.