Masayoshi Son, chairman and chief government officer of SoftBank Group Corp., speaks on the SoftBank World occasion in Tokyo, Japan, on Wednesday, July 16, 2025.
Kiyoshi Ota | Bloomberg | Getty Photos
Masayoshi Son is making his greatest wager but: that his brainchild SoftBank would be the middle of a revolution pushed by synthetic intelligence.
Son says synthetic superintelligence (ASI) — AI that’s 10,000 instances smarter than people — might be right here in 10 years. It is a daring name — however maybe not stunning. He is made a profession out of massive performs; notably, one was a $20 million funding into Chinese language e-commerce firm Alibaba in 2000 that has made billions for SoftBank.
Now, the billionaire is hoping to duplicate that success with a collection of investments and acquisitions in AI corporations that can put SoftBank on the middle of a basic technological shift.
Whereas Son has been outspoken about his imaginative and prescient during the last 12 months, his considering precedes a lot of his latest bullishness, in accordance with two former executives at SoftBank.
“I vividly keep in mind the primary time he invited me to his dwelling for dinner and sitting on his porch over a glass of wine, he began speaking to me about singularity – the purpose at which machine intelligence overtakes human intelligence,” Alok Sama, a former finance chief at SoftBank till 2016 and and president till 2019, informed CNBC.
SoftBank’s huge AI performs
For Son, AI appears private.
“SoftBank was based for what function? For what function was Masa Son born? It could sound unusual, however I feel I used to be born to understand ASI,” Son mentioned final 12 months.
That will go some solution to clarify what has been an aggressive drive over the previous few years — however particularly the final two — to place SoftBank on the middle of the AI story.
In 2016, SoftBank acquired chip designer Arm in a deal value about $32 billion on the time. At present, Arm is valued at greater than $145 billion. Whereas Arm blueprints type the idea of the designs for almost all of the world’s smartphones, today, the corporate is trying to place itself as a key participant in AI infrastructure. Arm-based chips are a part of Nvidia’s programs that go into knowledge facilities.
In March, SoftBank additionally introduced plans to accumulate one other chip designer, Ampere Computing, for $6.5 billion.
ChatGPT maker OpenAI is one other marquee funding for SoftBank, with the Japanese large saying lately that deliberate investments within the firm will attain about 4.8 trillion Japanese yen ($32.7 billion).
SoftBank has additionally invested in quite a lot of different corporations associated to AI throughout its portfolio.
“SoftBank’s AI technique is complete, spanning the whole AI stack from foundational semiconductors, software program, infrastructure, and robotics to cutting-edge cloud companies and finish purposes throughout essential verticals resembling enterprise, training, well being, and autonomous programs,” Neil Shah, co-founder at Counterpoint Analysis, informed CNBC.
“Mr. Son’s imaginative and prescient is to cohesively join and deeply combine these elements, thereby establishing a robust AI ecosystem designed to maximise long-term worth for our shareholders.”
SoftBank’s inventory efficiency since 2017, the 12 months that its first Imaginative and prescient Fund was based.
There’s a widespread theme behind SoftBank’s investments in AI corporations that comes straight from Son — particularly, that these corporations ought to be utilizing superior intelligence to be extra aggressive, profitable, to make their product higher and their clients glad, an individual acquainted with the corporate informed CNBC. They may solely remark anonymously due to the sensitivity of the matter.
It began with and mind computer systems and robots
As SoftBank launched “SoftBank’s Subsequent 30-Yr Imaginative and prescient” in 2010, Son spoke about “mind computer systems” throughout a presentation. He described these computer systems as programs that might study and program themselves ultimately.
After which got here robots. Main tech figures like Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and Tesla boss Elon Musk are actually speaking about robotics as a key utility of AI — however Son was considering about this greater than a decade in the past.
In 2012, SoftBank took a majority stake in a French firm referred to as Aldebaran. Two years later, the 2 corporations launched a humanoid robotic referred to as Pepper, which they billed as “the world’s first private robotic that may learn feelings.”
Later, Son mentioned: “In 30 years, I hope robots will develop into one of many core companies in producing earnings for the SoftBank group.”
SoftBank’s wager on Pepper in the end flopped for the corporate. SoftBank slashed jobs at its robotics unit and stopped producing Pepper in 2020. In 2022, German agency United Robotics Group agreed to accumulate Aldebaran from SoftBank.
However Son’s very early curiosity in robots underscored his curiosity for AI purposes of the longer term.
“He was in very early and he has been enthusiastic about this obsessively for a very long time,” Sama, who’s creator of “The Cash Entice,” mentioned.
Within the background, Son was cooking up one thing greater: a tech fund that might make waves within the investing world. He based the Imaginative and prescient Fund in 2017 with a large $100 billion in deployable capital.
SoftBank aggressively invested in corporations internationally with among the greatest bets on journey hailing gamers like Uber and Chinese language agency Didi.
However investments in Chinese language know-how corporations and a few dangerous bets on corporations like WeWork soured sentiment for the Imaginative and prescient Fund because it racked up billions of {dollars} of losses by 2023.
Imaginative and prescient however dangerous timing
The market questioned a few of Son’s investments in corporations like Uber and Didi, which had been burning by means of money on the time and had unclear unit economics.
However even these investments spoke to Son’s AI view, in accordance with the previous associate on the SoftBank Imaginative and prescient Fund.
“His thought again then was the primary introduction of AI could be self-driving automobiles,” the supply informed CNBC.
Once more this might be seen as a case of being too early. Uber created a driverless automotive unit solely to promote it off. As a substitute, the corporate has targeted on different self-driving automotive corporations to convey them onto the Uber platform. Even now, driverless automobiles aren’t widespread on roads, although industrial companies like these of Waymo can be found.
SoftBank nonetheless has investments in driverless automotive corporations, resembling British startup Wayve.
Timing clearly wasn’t on Son’s facet. After file losses on the Imaginative and prescient Fund in 2022, Son declared SoftBank would go into “protection” mode, considerably lowering investments and being extra prudent. It was right now that corporations like OpenAI had been starting to realize steam, however nonetheless earlier than the launch of ChatGPT that might put the corporate on the map.
“When these corporations got here to go in 2021, 2022, Masa would have been in an ideal place however he had used all his ammunition on different corporations,” the previous Imaginative and prescient Fund exec mentioned.
“After they got here to age in 21, 22, the Imaginative and prescient Fund had invested in 5 or 6 hundred completely different corporations and he was not able to spend money on AI and he missed that.”
Son himself mentioned this 12 months that SoftBank needed to spend money on OpenAI as early as 2019, but it surely was Microsoft that ended up turning into the important thing investor. Quick ahead to 2025, the Imaginative and prescient Fund — of which there are actually two — has a portfolio stacked filled with AI targeted corporations.
However that interval was robust for buyers throughout the board. The Covid-19 pandemic, booming inflation and rising charges hit private and non-private markets throughout the board after years of unfastened financial coverage and a tech bull run.
SoftBank did not see that point as a missed alternative to spend money on AI, an individual acquainted with the corporate mentioned.
As a substitute, the the corporate is of the view that it’s nonetheless very early within the AI investing cycle, the supply added.
Threat and reward
AI know-how is fast-moving, from the chips that run the software program to the fashions that underpin standard purposes.
Tech giants within the U.S. and China are battling it out to provide ever-advancing AI fashions with the intention of reaching synthetic normal intelligence (AGI) — a time period with completely different definitions relying on who you communicate to, however one which broadly refers to AI that’s smarter than people. With billions of {dollars} of funding going into the know-how, the chance is excessive, and the rewards might be even larger.
However disruption can come out of no the place.
This 12 months, Chinese language agency DeepSeek made waves after releasing a so-called reasoning mannequin that gave the impression to be developed extra cheaply than its U.S. rivals. The truth that a Chinese language firm managed the feat, regardless of all of the export restrictions for superior tech in place, rocked world monetary markets that had been betting the U.S. had an unassailable AI lead.
Whereas markets have since recovered, the potential of shock advances in know-how at such an early stage in AI stays an enormous danger for the likes of SoftBank.
“As with most know-how investments the important thing problem is to spend money on the successful applied sciences. Most of the investments SoftBank has made are within the present leaders however AI continues to be in its relative infancy so different challengers may nonetheless rear up from nowhere,” Dan Baker, senior fairness analyst at Morningstar, informed CNBC.
Nonetheless, Son has made it clear he needs to set SoftBank up with DNA that can see it survive and thrive for 300 years, in accordance with the corporate’s web site.
That will go some solution to clarify the large dangers that Son takes, and his conviction in terms of specific themes and corporations — and the valuations he is keen to pay.
“He (Son) made some errors, however directionally he’s going in the identical driection, which is — he needs to make sure that he’s an actual participant in AI and he’s making it occur,” the previous Imaginative and prescient Fund exec mentioned.