Russian President Vladimir Putin’s India go to this week is being carefully watched by the world – what’s going to it imply for India’s commerce dynamics with each Russia and the US. Will India convey down its crude oil imports from Russia or look to take care of its autonomy whereas navigating stress from US President Donald Trump? The reply isn’t simple – laced in geopolitical, financial and diplomatic points!Putin is making his first diplomatic go to to India for the reason that battle in Ukraine began, marking an important diplomatic milestone amidst advanced geopolitical circumstances. Discounted Russian crude has reshaped India’s power safety however deepened its publicity to sanctions and geopolitical threat, says Ajay Srivastava, founding father of World Commerce Analysis Initiative.The go to happens at a posh time. India faces steady US stress concerning its Russian oil purchases while being urged to extend entry for American merchandise and defence tools in its markets.“Putin’s go to isn’t a nostalgic return to Chilly Struggle diplomacy. It’s a negotiation over threat, provide chains and financial insulation. A modest final result will safe oil and defence; an formidable one will reshape regional economics. The go to is finally not about selecting sides—however about managing dependence in a fractured world,” GTRI says.Historical past explains the resilience of the partnership. In the course of the Chilly Struggle, the US backed Pakistan and deployed the USS Enterprise in the course of the 1971 battle. The Soviet Union responded with weapons assist and diplomatic shielding on the United Nations. Moscow stood by India after its 1962 battle with China, offered repeated diplomatic backing over Kashmir, and remained a defence companion after India’s 1998 nuclear checks introduced Western sanctions. “ Over many years, Russia transferred strategic applied sciences the West withheld. Even at the moment, about 60–70% of India’s army platforms stay of Russian origin. The partnership was in-built battle, not commerce,” the suppose tank says.Additionally Learn | Trump sanctions: India’s crude imports from Russia at 5-month excessive – can it proceed?In line with GTRI, India’s present engagement with Russia rests on three pillars—power, defence and diplomacy. Vitality now dominates the connection.Russia has turn out to be India’s largest crude oil provider, accounting for as a lot as 30–35% of whole oil imports, turning discounted crude into the inspiration of the partnership. Defence varieties the second pillar. Russia continues to provide and repair a majority of India’s frontline platforms—fighter jets, submarines, tanks and air defence programs—and talks proceed on upkeep assist and future acquisitions. The third pillar is diplomatic coordination by way of multilaterals together with BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, and the Jap Financial Discussion board, alongside cooperation in nuclear energy, area exploration, fertilizers and connectivity.At the same time as India deepens relations with Washington, Brussels and Tokyo, it treats Moscow as important to its strategic autonomy, notes GTRI.
India’s Rising Imports of Russian Crude Oil
Russia has emerged as India’s major oil provider, making up roughly one-third of whole crude imports in 2024. A considerable enhance in India’s expenditure on Russian oil is obvious, rising from $2.3bn in 2021 to $52.7bn in 2024 – a big shift in power procurement patterns.
- Russia’s place in India’s oil procurement panorama has seen a considerable shift for the reason that Ukraine battle. Previous to 2021, Russian provide was minimal, with yearly crude purchases hovering round $2-3 billion, constituting simply 1-2% of India’s whole oil acquisitions.
- This situation altered considerably in 2022, with purchases reaching $25.5 billion, rising Russia’s contribution to roughly 15% of India’s crude imports, as sanctions redirected Russian oil in direction of Asian markets at lowered costs.
- The figures escalated in 2023, with imports reaching $48.6 billion, pushing Russia’s share to 34.6%, establishing it as India’s main oil provider, surpassing conventional Gulf sources.
- In 2024, the worth elevated to $52.7 billion, with Russia’s portion reaching 37.3% of whole crude imports. This three-year transition has basically altered India’s power safety concerns and elevated its involvement in international oil sanctions politics.
India’s Crude Oil Imports-US$ Billion
Monetary sanctions have necessitated different cost preparations. Following Russia’s partial SWIFT exclusion, funds now contain a number of currencies: dirhams (60-65%), rupees (25-30%), and yuan (5-10%). Roughly ₹60,000 crore in rupees stay largely unutilised in devoted Indian accounts. Russian choice has shifted in direction of UAE dirham settlements, providing higher spending and conversion flexibility. Yuan transactions happen periodically. Whereas purposeful, this association stays inclined to instability and political pressures.“In power, New Delhi is predicted to pursue long-term crude contracts with Non US sanctioned Russian corporations like Lukoil and Roseneft, revival of Indian investments in Russian power tasks, and development of nuclear cooperation past Kudankulam. Cooperation in vital minerals, manufacturing and maritime connectivity linking India with Russia’s Far East may be mentioned,” says GTRI.Additionally Learn | India’s love for Russian oil continues? State refiners decide non-sanctioned crude at increased reductions; however will Moscow stay high provider?
India-Russia: Commerce & Defence Dynamics
GTRI factors out the defence relationship stays important, as roughly two-thirds of India’s army tools comes from Russia, linking operational functionality to Russian elements and modernisation programmes.Indian defence officers plan to request quicker supply of extra S-400 Triumf programs while searching for assurances concerning upkeep and upgrades for Russian-origin tools. Discussions concerning the Su-57 stealth fighter are anticipated, although primarily as a long-term prospect moderately than instant acquisition.India’s exports to Russia stand at roughly $5bn yearly, while imports, primarily energy-related, attain almost $64bn. India’s export footprint in Russia is slender, with prescribed drugs and equipment sturdy however clothes, electronics and client items negligible. Funds are more and more de-dollarised, routed by way of UAE dirhams, rupees and yuan, reflecting the workaround financial system created by sanctions, says GTRI.Commerce figures between India and Russia present a big imbalance, with restricted export enlargement however substantial energy-focused imports. Indian exports elevated from $4.3 billion in FY24 to $4.9 billion in FY25, attaining $2.25 billion throughout April-September 2025.The exports focus totally on industrial and chemical merchandise, with equipment ($367.8 million), prescribed drugs ($246 million), and natural chemical substances ($165.8 million) constituting the principle share in FY26’s first half. Different sectors present minimal presence: smartphones ($75.9 million), Vannamei shrimp ($75.7 million), meat ($63 million), and clothes ($20.94 million), reflecting India’s restricted entry to Russian client markets and electronics sectors regardless of strategic shifts.Russian imports preserve their dominance, reaching $63.2 billion in FY24 and $63.8 billion in FY25, with April-September 2025 recording $31.2 billion. The import composition closely options petroleum, particularly crude oil ($23.1 billion) and petroleum merchandise ($2.5 billion), alongside coal ($1.9 billion). Important imports embody fertilisers ($1.3 billion), sunflower seed oil ($633 million), and diamonds ($202 million).This creates an unbalanced buying and selling relationship the place India will depend on Russia for essential power sources and uncooked supplies while dealing with challenges in increasing its value-added exports, making a commerce dynamic inclined to worldwide commodity worth fluctuations.
What would be the final result of Putin’s India go to?
GTRI envisions two eventualities as outcomes of Putin’s go to to India:The almost definitely final result is a cautious strengthening of current ties. India might safe agency timelines on defence deliveries, upkeep contracts, and know-how upgrades for plane, tanks and submarines. Russia, in flip, could lock in long-term power commitments—together with revived Indian fairness in LNG fields, multi-year crude provide agreements, and accelerated nuclear plant building, says GTRI. The 2 international locations may formalize a brand new cost framework utilizing the dirham or combine Russia’s SPFS system with India’s RuPay community. This situation stabilizes the connection with out considerably elevating diplomatic prices, it says.The extra formidable different would mark a deeper realignment. “India and Russia might agree on joint manufacturing of defence tools, Indian funding in Russian oil and gasoline tasks akin to Arctic LNG 2 or Vostok, and enlargement of nuclear cooperation past current reactors,” says the suppose tank. “Connectivity initiatives just like the Chennai–Vladivostok hall or nodes of the Worldwide North–South Transport Hall might additionally achieve momentum. A structured settlement framework could possibly be unveiled to scale back idle rupee balances. This situation would reshape India’s Eurasian integration—however probably provoke sharper Western response,” it provides.“Past optics, the summit is about securing gas, weapons and funds towards a world of monetary and political fragmentation. For India, the problem is strategic steadiness—defending autonomy whereas navigating stress from Washington and dependence on Moscow,” concludes GTRI.