Within the aftermath of the fear assault on civilians in Pahalgam, Kashmir, on April 22, 2025, Chinese language International Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiankun commented that Beijing firmly opposes all types of terrorism. And but, China’s posturing across the state of India-Pakistan relations has largely caught to 3 assertions, which specific its implicit assist for Pakistan’s place.
The primary is that China believes the incident was a results of unknown however positively native gunmen “taking pictures” civilians. That is evident from protection on two of China’s largest and hottest media platforms, Xinhua and CCTV, each owned and operated by the Chinese language party-state. The one means Chinese language articulation differs from that of Pakistan, on this regard, is that common protection has referred to the placement of the incident as “India-controlled” or “India-administered” Kashmir, versus Islamabad, which refers to it as “Indian illegally-occupied Kashmir”.
‘Keep away from Untimely Conclusions’
This method undermines the concept the incident was an act of terror, and pushes apart Indian considerations surrounding infiltration of Pakistani state-sponsored terrorists into Kashmir. In truth, protection in main Chinese language state-owned media platforms such because the World Occasions is fodder to the authenticity of The Resistance Entrance (TRF)’s relatively hasty withdrawal, whereby the fear group attributed its assertion claiming accountability for the assault to a cyber intrusion. On this account, the platform urged India to behave “rationally” and “keep away from untimely conclusions”. To an knowledgeable viewers, this can be a blatant disregard for the historical past and context of Pakistani state-sponsored terrorism on Indian soil.
The second assertion is that China formally hopes for each India and Pakistan to maneuver towards a peaceable decision of the dispute and settle for bilateral negotiations as the best way ahead. This was notably emphasised by Chinese language International Minister Wang Yi in a cellphone name together with his Pakistani counterpart, Mohammad Ishaq Dar, on April 27. Additional, the sentiment was reiterated by Guo Jiankun in his common press convention on April 28, the place he acknowledged that “as a typical neighbour of each India and Pakistan, China hopes the 2 sides will train restraint, transfer towards one another, and correctly deal with their variations via dialogue and session”.
Mediation Or Interference?
There’s some assist for this place in scholarly circles. For instance, Wang Shida, an Government Director at China Institutes of Up to date Worldwide Relations (a Chinese language Ministry of State Safety establishment), argued in an opinion piece for Huanqiu (World Occasions Chinese language) that as a result of India and Pakistan have a protracted approach to go when it comes to financial improvement, the 2 ought to give attention to shortly resolving the dispute and shifting on to their developmental agendas.
What can be attention-grabbing, nonetheless, is that the proposal for de-escalation does not precisely appear to be motivated by a want for peace. It relatively comes throughout from commentaries in Chinese language media about how analysts consider India does not have the potential to have interaction in and win a scorching battle on Kashmir with Pakistan, and that it’ll derail its objectives and ambitions if it makes an attempt to take action. Students like Wang put it extra subtly, in that he says in his opinion piece, “If the state of affairs in Kashmir additional escalates – and even ‘explodes’ – it might clearly not serve India’s elementary pursuits.”
Different commentators, corresponding to Gu Huoping (a pen title for an account that steadily writes on army affairs regarding China), argue that within the face of India’s aggressive posture, Pakistan is true to not again down. In truth, in a latest article for the Chinese language media platform NetEase, Gu opines {that a} scorching battle could also be a take a look at of all of the ‘Made in China’ defence merchandise the Pakistan armed forces are closely reliant on. Utilizing examples of India’s retreat within the 1962 battle with China, and by misleadingly arguing that India has not held a transparent benefit in its historic wars with Pakistan, Gu makes an attempt to propagate the concept it is best for Delhi to again off.
How China Is Undermining India
One other angle that ties into this narrative on negotiation as the best way ahead, is Beijing’s willingness to play mediator. In his April 28 remarks, Guo Jiankun additionally acknowledged, “China welcomes all measures conducive to de-escalating the present state of affairs and helps the early launch of a good investigation.” Apparently, this assertion was made in response to a query posed by a journalist of the RIA Novosti, a Russian state-owned media company, primarily based on the platform’s latest interview with Pakistan Defence Minister Khawaja Asif. On this interview, Asif stated that he would discover a global intervention by Russia, China, or any Western international locations extremely helpful to determine who was behind the incident, and added that Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif supported this proposal.
Naturally, Beijing appears to consider that it could possibly be the best actor to allow a de-escalation of the state of affairs, together with by supporting the launch of a “truthful and swift” investigation. In truth, the protection of Guo’s statements hardly ever acknowledges that Asif additionally referred to as on different actors, together with international locations within the West, to assist a global investigation. If one additional appears on the Chinese language transcript of Wang Yi’s cellphone name with Dar, Wang vouches for Pakistan’s sovereignty and “official safety considerations”, whereas once more calling for an “neutral investigation.” By persistently iterating its capability to convey peace, Beijing is inadvertently supporting Pakistan’s internationalisation of what’s clearly a bilateral difficulty, and undermining India’s opposition to world mediation.
What China Stated For Pulwama
You will need to observe right here that China’s official rhetoric surrounding negotiation and mediation to resolve India and Pakistan’s variations is just not new. Related statements have been introduced by the International Ministry to answer the Jaish-e-Mohammed assault in Pulwama in February 2019. Even then, spokesperson Geng Shuang had refused to acknowledge Pakistani involvement, arguing that India’s naming of the fear group answerable for the assault doesn’t point out a confirmed judgment; that is more likely to stay a rhetorical development in China’s posturing vis-à-vis India-Pak tensions.
Third and closing is the Chinese language emphasis on the immorality and futility of India’s punitive measures towards Pakistan. A few of that is mirrored within the writings of commentators of Gu Huoping on the resilience of Pakistan’s China-backed armed forces within the face of Indian resolve. On a extra nuanced stage, the rhetoric rising out of Beijing is targeted on opposing all the pieces, from India’s determination to close off its airspace to Pakistani plane, to its transfer to carry the Indus Water Treaty in abeyance.
For instance, a latest commentary on Sohu, a Chinese language web media and on-line search firm, glorifies Pakistan’s retaliatory determination to close off its airspace to Indian plane and halt bilateral commerce as a landmark response to India’s punitive measures. The commentary is authored by a preferred analyst going by the title ‘World Protection Focus’ and has over 720 million reads. Equally, on the difficulty of India’s “menace” to cease Pakistan’s water provide, a latest article on Guancha highlights assist for Islamabad’s claims that India has brought on reasonable flooding in a number of low-lying areas in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. Such rhetoric clearly ignores meteorological details. Even when there are increased ranges of waterflow recorded in Jhelum previously few days, it’s possible a results of seasonal melting of glaciers – one thing the Lahore Flood Forecasting Division itself warned residents of on April 18.
The CPEC Angle
One other angle to clarify why Chinese language narratives have particularly de-legitimised India’s countermeasures is that they probably influence China’s pursuits in Pakistan. Feedback on the incident by common analyst Liu Zongyi, Director of the South Asia Analysis Middle on the Shanghai Institutes for Worldwide Research (a government-affiliated assume tank), inform readers that Beijing could also be involved about implications for the China-Pakistan Financial Hall (CPEC). In truth, to additional the reason for de-escalation and for Pakistan’s personal “safety pursuits”, he identified that Pakistan accuses India of supporting separatist and extremist teams inside Pakistan and Afghanistan – teams that threaten Pakistan’s inside safety and disrupt CPEC.
On this regard, at the same time as Beijing’s official rhetoric has been comparatively gentle and imprecise, the societal and analytical assist for the strategic convergence between China and Pakistan is clearly evident. At a time when India-Pakistan relations are witnessing an intense shake-up, China is more likely to maintain its posturing, together with via proposals to mediate within the title of regional stability. From the Indian perspective, it is important to evaluate how greatest to counter such narratives.
(Anushka Saxena is a China Research Analysis Analyst with the Takshashila Establishment’s Indo-Pacific Research Programme)
Disclaimer: These are the non-public opinions of the creator