A mining machine is seen on the Bayan Obo mine containing uncommon earth minerals, in Interior Mongolia, China.
China Stringer Community | Reuters
In April 2025, China imposed new export controls on seven uncommon earth parts and the everlasting magnets derived from them — supplies that kind the muse of recent life and fashionable warfare. Fighter jets, missiles, electrical autos, drones, wind generators, and even information facilities depend on high-performance magnets constructed from these vital minerals. By proscribing their stream, Beijing didn’t simply flex its industrial muscle, it revealed America’s and the remainder of the world’s harmful vulnerability. China’s newest actions present their readiness and skill to weaponize American and world dependence.
This isn’t a brand new problem. The USA has recognized for over 15 years that its vital mineral provide chains have been too concentrated, too fragile, and too uncovered to Chinese language leverage and management. And but, throughout Democratic and Republican administrations, we now have failed to reply with urgency or coherence. Now, the results of these failures have grabbed us by the neck and are cascading throughout our business and protection sectors.
Following the London talks, Washington and Beijing introduced on Friday a brand new commerce framework below which China will resume approving export licenses for uncommon earths over the following six months. U.S. officers have publicly extolled the breakthrough — however have supplied few particulars about what was given in return. That leaves main questions unanswered: What have been the U.S. trade-offs? How will the deal be enforced? And what occurs when the six months are up?
Skepticism is excessive. Ford not too long ago halted manufacturing at its Chicago plant attributable to a magnet scarcity — underscoring that even short-term provide interruptions have actual penalties. Paper agreements should not provide chain options. With out transparency, well timed approvals, and long-term planning, this might simply grow to be one other diplomatic cycle of 1 step ahead, two steps again.
Even this restricted reprieve carries dangers. Dozens of corporations in Europe and North America have described China’s export license course of as extremely invasive — requiring corporations to submit detailed manufacturing information, end-use purposes, facility photographs, buyer names, and transaction histories. Some candidates have been denied for not offering pictures or documentation of their finish customers.
Executives say the method quantities to “official info extraction.”
Whereas corporations are suggested to not share delicate IP, omitting key particulars can imply indefinite delays. For corporations in protection provide chains, the implications are alarming: beneficial business intelligence might be used to map opponents, disrupt pricing, or advance Chinese language substitutes.
This is not simply licensing — it is aggressive surveillance. And till the U.S. builds safe, impartial capability throughout the vital minerals provide chain, it stays uncovered to each disruption and information danger.
This vulnerability didn’t occur in a single day. Many have been watching this slow-motion prepare wreck for years. In 2010, China lower off uncommon earth exports to Japan throughout a maritime dispute, a transparent warning shot the U.S. noticed however disregarded. In 2014, the Obama administration gained a WTO case in opposition to China’s export restrictions however wrongly assumed that authorized success would deter additional manipulation.
What Trump, Biden have carried out
The primary Trump administration recognized uncommon earths as vital however notably exempted them from 2018 China tariffs, maybe an unstated acknowledgment of U.S. dependence. Biden took probably the most structured strategy to this point: Govt Order 14017, the Essential Minerals Working Group, and funding from the IIJA and IRA. Strategic partnerships just like the Minerals Safety Partnership emerged. However progress was sluggish, hampered by allowing delays and uneven ally commitments.
The second Trump administration has returned with extra aggressive measures, invoking Part 232, activating the Protection Manufacturing Act, and proposing main funding boosts in FY2026. A Nationwide Vitality Dominance Council now coordinates efforts. But these measures, like China’s six-month reprieve, nonetheless fall in need of dislodging Beijing’s grip. And crucially, the protection sector stays lower off, with no such licensing window accessible.
The latest G7 summit in Canada underscored the worldwide stakes. European Fee President Ursula von der Leyen instantly accused China of “weaponizing” its management over key supplies like uncommon earths, calling for a united G7 response. The outcome: a G7 Essential Minerals Motion Plan. Although China was not talked about by identify, the subtext was unmistakable. The plan commits G7 members to boost ESG and traceability requirements for key sources; mobilize capital for brand new initiatives in vital mineral mining and processing; and cooperate on innovation in recycling, substitution, and refining applied sciences.
Predictably, Beijing reacted with fury. The Chinese language Ministry of International Affairs dismissed the plan as “a pretext” for protectionism, claiming the G7 was instigating confrontation out of worry of shedding market share.
Brussels is now signaling that commerce negotiations with Beijing are successfully stalled, so the chances of Chinese language retaliation — significantly in opposition to the EU — are rising. If China doubles down, it dangers pushing the EU, Japan, South Korea, and India extra tightly into Washington’s orbit — exactly what Beijing hopes to keep away from.
China’s dominant place in uncommon earth mining
The uncooked numbers are staggering. China accounts for roughly 70% of worldwide uncommon earth mining however over 90% of refining capability. It produces 92% of the world’s neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) magnets — utilized in all the things from submarines to Teslas. This dominance isn’t any accident. China sponsored processing, targeted on world acquisitions throughout the provision chain, and scales up manufacturing a lot quicker than the West can approve and situation permits for a single mine.
U.S. websites like MP Supplies‘ Mountain Cross and Spherical High stay incomplete with out downstream processing. The DoD and DOE have supplied grants, and the FY2026 Trump price range seems to be to broaden U.S. mining capability and safe entry to vital minerals. However all this stays dwarfed by China’s head begin and longtime industrial command-and-control of the sector.
The Mountain Cross Uncommon Earth Mine & Processing Facility, owned by MP Supplies, in Mountain Cross, California.
George Rose | Getty Pictures Information | Getty Pictures
China moved early and decisively into Africa and Latin America, partnering with governments within the Democratic Republic of Congo, Bolivia, and Chile; investing in ports, rails, and refining infrastructure. In distinction, U.S. efforts and engagement on these units of points has been piecemeal and values-forward, prioritizing transparency and governance, essential points certainly, however delivering restricted momentum of the vital mineral points. Even latest MOUs with Ukraine and the Democratic Republic of Congo stay, for now, symbolic, hindered by battle and instability in these international locations.
The London talks and up to date commerce deal progress purchased time. However time with out a technique just isn’t fruitful. China’s licensing regime stays intact, its information calls for unabated. The protection sector stays shut out. In the meantime, congressional threats to rescind clear power and industrial coverage funding may stall rare-earth initiatives simply as they achieve traction.
This can be a decisive second. China is betting that America’s inner divisions — between labor, business, environmentalists, tribal nations, and political factions — will stop the type of unified, sustained effort wanted to compete. They could be proper. The U.S. must proves them improper.
Essential minerals are geopolitical energy
The USA should now deal with vital minerals not as commodities, however as devices of geopolitical energy. China already does. Escaping its grip would require greater than mine permits and short-term funding. It calls for a coherent, long-term technique to construct an entire provide chain that features not solely home capabilities but additionally dependable allies and companions. From mining and refining to magnet manufacturing and recycling, each hyperlink have to be strengthened by means of focused funding, allowing reform, and strategic coordination.
A profitable and sustainable coverage requires dedication from one presidency to the following. Nor can the U.S. afford to interact allies and companions solely rhetorically. Nations just like the Democratic Republic of Congo, Chile, and Indonesia (amongst others) want sustained partnerships backed by financing, expertise switch, and important infrastructure investments, not simply our lectures on governance.
The six-month export reprieve from China just isn’t an answer — it’s a stress check. It reveals whether or not the U.S. can lastly focus and act, or whether or not it is going to retreat once more into complacency. Beijing is betting it will likely be the latter. Washington should reply with urgency, unity, and a technique equal to the size of the problem. There may be nonetheless time, however not a lot.
—By Dewardric McNeal, Managing Director and Senior Coverage Analyst at Longview International, and a CNBC Contributor