A model of this text first appeared in CNBC’s Inside Wealth publication with Robert Frank, a weekly information to the high-net-worth investor and client. Join to obtain future editions, straight to your inbox.
Greater than a 3rd of the apartment residences bought in Manhattan over roughly the previous yr bought at a loss, though the highest finish of the market fared higher, in accordance with a brand new report.
Regardless of the regular stream of headlines about eye-popping gross sales and hovering costs in Manhattan actual property, the median worth per sq. foot for Manhattan condos is actually flat from a decade in the past, in accordance with a report from Brown Harris Stevens. One in three apartment resales between July 2024 and June 2025 had been bought at a loss, in accordance with the report. When together with inflation, transaction prices and renovations, the share of losses by apartment sellers is probably going even larger, in accordance with actual property analysts.
Whereas the information did not embody co-ops, analysts say co-op costs have usually fared the identical or barely worse than condos.
“For the final decade, Manhattan has basically been transferring sideways,” mentioned Jonathan Miller, CEO of Miller Samuel, the appraisal and actual property analysis agency.
The long-term worth weak spot in Manhattan stands in stark distinction to a lot of the nation, the place residence costs are up considerably because the pandemic, making a widespread affordability disaster. Solely 2% of residence sellers nationally who bought houses earlier than the pandemic are liable to promoting at a loss, in accordance with Redfin.
Manhattan continues to be among the many costliest markets within the nation, particularly on a per-square-foot foundation. The median worth for Manhattan gross sales within the third quarter was $1.2 million, whereas the common is slightly below $2 million, in accordance with Miller Samuel and Douglas Elliman. But over the long run, an evaluation of resales finds that the timing of purchases in Manhattan sometimes issues greater than location.
Apartment homeowners who purchased earlier than 2010 have fared the very best. The median good points for these in that cohort who bought over roughly the previous yr had been between 29% and 45%, in accordance with the Brown Harris report. Costs began to rise after the monetary disaster, peaking in 2016. Which means for many who purchased between 2011 and 2015, the sale good points previously yr had been modest, round 11%.
The largest losers had been those that purchased after 2016. Half of the consumers who purchased between 2016 and 2020 bought at a loss over the surveyed interval. Amongst those that purchased between 2021 and 2024, the good points had been slim – though some consumers who received offers in the course of the depths of the Covid downturn in late 2020 and early 2021 might fare higher.
Including in different prices of shopping for, promoting and possession would additional add to the losses. Transaction prices in Manhattan can vary from 6% to 10%, in accordance with brokers. Renovations and enhancements additionally aren’t counted within the losses, nor are upkeep charges or taxes. Adjusting for inflation would additionally enhance the losses and decrease returns.
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, co-director of the Paul Milstein Heart for Actual Property on the Graduate Faculty of Enterprise at Columbia College, mentioned inflation has elevated 36% over the previous decade.
“So if I had invested in a Manhattan apartment in September 2015 (near the height) and bought it in August 2025 for a similar nominal worth, a 0% nominal return, I truly misplaced 36% in actual phrases,” he mentioned. “That is shocking since many individuals consider actual property as a great inflation hedge.”
He famous that the Case-Shiller nationwide residence worth index went up 89% within the 10 years between September 2015 and August 2025, “rather a lot higher than in NYC and likewise far larger than the 36% inflation.”
The explanations for Manhattan’s “misplaced decade” in apartment costs are as various as they’re disputed. The cap on state and native tax deductions that started in 2018 put strain on costs and demand, as did a 2019 lease legislation. The migration of some larger earners to Florida throughout Covid additionally added to actual property fears, though the inhabitants and demand shortly rebounded.
The one exception to the development was the highest of the market. Those that purchased and bought residences for $10 million or extra made double-digit earnings, irrespective of after they initially purchased.
Brokers and analysts say the elevated focus of wealth on the high, rising inventory markets and ceaseless demand from those that are much less affected by financial and market cycles has powered continued good points within the luxurious market.
“The upper finish has fared higher over the last decade, particularly in, as an example, the highest 4% of the market,” Miller mentioned. “The reason being Wall Road and monetary markets. And the power to purchase in money, unbiased of rates of interest.”
Two thirds of the residence offers completed within the third quarter had been completed in money, Miller mentioned, far above the historic common of round 53% and displaying the continued dependence of the Manhattan market on rich consumers who do not want mortgages.
In a market outlined by frequent ups and downs, brokers say the present upswing presents a chance for each consumers and sellers.
“I am bullish and have a really optimistic outlook for New York actual property,” mentioned Jared Antin, government director at Brown Harris Stevens and a co-author of the report. “Whereas some folks might have misplaced cash on the offers [over the decade], the losses had been negligible. It speaks to the blue chip nature of the Manhattan market. Does everybody wish to earn a living on their actual property? In fact. However this market is extremely steady.”
Sellers who purchased in the course of the dip in 2020 and early 2021 might additionally see earnings after they begin to promote, Antin mentioned.
Nonetheless, with median costs hovering close to all-time highs and uncertainty across the upcoming mayoral election, many potential consumers desire to remain on the sidelines and lease, even when they will afford to purchase. The variety of households in New York Metropolis making greater than $1 million a yr who’re renting greater than doubled between 2019 and 2023, to five,661, in accordance with a report from RentCafe.
What’s extra, signed contracts for high-end residences — priced at $4 million or extra — fell 39% in September, in accordance with Olshan Realty, following will increase in August and July. Brokers blame a speedy decline in stock and lack of latest provide from apartment developments moderately than a decline in demand or fears that Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist, would turn out to be the subsequent mayor of New York Metropolis.
“There actually is a draw back danger to coverage,” Miller mentioned. “However as we have seen previously, these fears are normally overblown.”