A drone view of oil storage containers and amenities of the TotalEnergies refinery within the Leuna Chemical Complicated, in Leuna, Germany, March 17, 2026.
Annegret Hilse | Reuters
Oil costs prolonged beneficial properties after U.S. President Donald Trump doubled down on his threats to assault Iran’s civil infrastructure, warning that the nation will likely be “taken out in a single evening” if the Islamic Republic’s management didn’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for Might broadened beneficial properties to commerce over 2% larger at $114.72 per barrel as of 03:25 a.m. ET. Brent crude for June supply rose about 1.2% to $111.08 per barrel.
Brent crude costs
On Monday, Trump repeated his menace that the U.S. would destroy Iran’s energy crops and bridges if Tehran didn’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday, whereas additionally signaling that Iranian management was negotiating in earnest.
The closure of the slim waterway connecting the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman has led to a provide shock, sending costs for crude, jet gasoline, diesel, and gasoline hovering because the conflict broke out on Feb. 28.
“They’ve ’til tomorrow,” the president mentioned. “Now we’ll see what occurs. I can inform you, they’re negotiating, we predict in good religion, we will discover out. We’re getting the assistance of some unbelievable international locations that need this to be ended, as a result of it impacts them additionally.”
Reuters reported that the U.S. and Iran had been discussing a framework plan to finish their 5-week-old battle, as Tehran has pushed again towards Trump’s stress to swiftly reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which might permit site visitors to renew by the important vitality artery.
Iran has rejected the U.S. ceasefire proposal, presenting its personal 10-point plan, in line with Axios, together with a everlasting finish to hostilities within the area, somewhat than a short lived ceasefire, a protocol for protected passage by the Strait of Hormuz, lifting of sanctions, and reconstruction.
However the probabilities of a ceasefire deal being reached earlier than the deadline remained slim, in line with the report.
Trump responded to the proposal, saying that “They made a … important proposal. Not adequate, however they’ve made a really important step. We are going to see what occurs.”
Visitors trickling by
The end result of the peace talks stays murky, mentioned Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Analysis, maintaining traders on tenterhooks and caught between pricing in an imminent finish to the battle or additional escalation.
“There isn’t any strategy to predict the end result. We will not rule out that Iran will collapse. Or, Trump could postpone the deadline once more, explaining that negotiations are making progress. Or the conflict will escalate,” Yardeni mentioned. “The fog of conflict stays thick.”
Delivery by the Strait of Hormuz has slowly resumed, with 8 tankers transiting Monday, up from the common of fewer than 2 transits per day in March, in line with S&P World Market Intelligence. That, nevertheless, is a fraction of pre-war ranges, with a mean of 20 million barrels of crude oil and merchandise transiting the strait per day in 2025.
“It’s an enchancment on the margin when it comes to flows from [the Strait of Hormuz],” mentioned Michael Wan, senior forex analyst at MUFG Analysis, noting that the trail in the direction of peace stays “slim and unlikely” given the huge hole in expectations amongst completely different events within the battle.
A full resumption of site visitors by the strait would nonetheless take a while for the precise provide to stream by to Asian economies dealing with imminent vitality scarcity, mentioned Wan, who expects a timeline of “not less than 3 to six months.”