NEW DELHI: When Prime Minister Narendra Modi stood beside Donald Trump at Houston’s Howdy Modi occasion in 2019, it was greater than only a diaspora spectacle. It was the seen embodiment of a strategic wager — that non-public chemistry between leaders might fast-track an alignment between the world’s largest democracy and its oldest.That narrative survived Trump’s turbulent first time period and carried into his second, when PM Modi returned to Washington on 13 February 2025 for an official working go to that produced heat optics and a joint assertion.However from there on, relations between the White Home and Lok Kalyan Marg adopted a deteriorating trajectory. The so-called Operation Sindoor episode, adopted by Trump’s boastful claims of brokering a ceasefire in South Asia, dented belief. The rupture deepened with Washington’s tariff barrage on Indian exports and vitality imports. What started as a handshake friendship risked descending right into a transactional chilly shoulder.By late summer season 2025, Delhi and Washington had been left to handle what diplomats referred to as “the sinking boat of commerce.” The tariff chapter hit Indian companies laborious, and Donald Trump’s calls for for seen loyalty irritated policymakers in New Delhi. Nonetheless, after the RIC (Russia–India–China) show at Tianjin throughout the SCO summit on 1 September 2025, there have been indicators that Trump’s tariff tantrums had been moderating — a sign that each capitals should still be on the lookout for a revival, at the same time as Delhi hedges with Moscow and Beijing.
June cellphone name that modified the tone: Report
The primary main rupture got here on 17 June 2025, in a cellphone name between PM Modi and Trump. In response to a report by The New York Occasions, Trump repeatedly claimed credit score for de-escalating a flare-up between India and Pakistan — a declare PM Modi didn’t endorse. Trump allegedly requested PM Modi to “acknowledge” his position publicly and even floated the thought of assist for a Nobel Peace Prize. PM Modi’s refusal hardened Trump’s temper.The cellphone name was by no means formally confirmed intimately, however Indian officers hinted that “pointless self-congratulation” had strained the dialogue. For analysts, it marked the purpose the place the non-public rapport between the 2 leaders started to fray.
Operation Sindoor and the ceasefire declare
The backdrop to that cellphone name was Operation Sindoor, India’s restricted however high-visibility army motion alongside the western frontier in early June 2025. New Delhi framed the operation as a focused counter-terror response, however Trump publicly recommended the US had pressured each India and Pakistan into restraint — an assertion dismissed in Delhi as exaggerated.Trump’s declare of getting “secured a ceasefire” created home political unease for PM Modi. Critics accused him of permitting India’s sovereignty to be undermined by Washington’s narrative. Whereas Indian officers tried to downplay the rhetoric, the notion that Trump was utilizing South Asia for self-promotion lingered.Dr Ashok Sharma, Visiting Fellow on the College of New South Wales Canberra on the Australian Defence Pressure Academy, talking to Occasions of India, famous that “Donald Trump, in his first time period, was not as blunt in his dealings with India, however in his present tenure he seems way more unpredictable and has moved away from the standard Republican stance on New Delhi. Some consultants even describe this shift as a ‘reverse Nixon’ transfer towards India.”
Tariff tantrums: From commerce tariffs to a 50% wall
What adopted was harsher and measurable: tariffs. On 27 August 2025, Washington slapped Indian items with as much as 50% tariffs, citing unfair commerce practices and New Delhi’s refusal to cut back Russian oil imports. The transfer surprised Indian exporters and undercut years of lobbying by US companies who had invested in India as a “China Plus One” base.Indian officers referred to as the choice “unjustified,” mentioning that India’s commerce surplus with the US was far smaller than China’s and that Indian firms had been nonetheless main consumers of American items. Extra delicate nonetheless was Washington’s express linking of tariffs to India’s Russian crude purchases. New Delhi defended its shopping for spree as an vitality safety necessity.The tariffs threatened a chilling impact: Industries starting from textiles and prescribed drugs to metal and IT providers noticed rapid price spikes. Analysts warned that the penalties risked unravelling one of many few bipartisan achievements in US international coverage — strengthening ties with India to stability China.As Sharma defined, “Trump’s bluntness stems from India’s current resistance to Washington’s makes an attempt to dictate phrases, seen within the Operation Sindoor episode and the continued tariff disputes. His aggressive posture has now expanded right into a broader offensive towards BRICS nations, signalling a recalibration of US international coverage priorities.”
Tianjin optics: Putin’s limousine and Xi’s heat handshake
The SCO summit in Tianjin on September 1 supplied the clearest demonstration of how Delhi was recalibrating. PM Modi held bilateral conferences with each Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, emphasising long-term ties and regional cooperation.The photographs that dominated tv screens again dwelling in India weren’t of a cautious handshake with Xi, however of PM Modi driving with Putin in his Aurus limousine after the summit — a gesture of camaraderie choreographed for the cameras.Indian officers framed the conferences as pragmatic diplomacy. However the symbolism was unavoidable; after weeks of bruising tariffs from Washington, New Delhi was visibly embracing Moscow and interesting China in a multilateral setting.
Oil on the centre of geopolitics
Power has been the unstated driver of this shift. Since 2022, when sanctions pushed Russian crude out of Western markets, India and China have emerged as Moscow’s high consumers. By mid-2025, discounted Russian oil accounted for practically 40% of India’s crude imports. That cushion allowed Delhi to include home inflation and maintain refineries buzzing.For Washington, these purchases regarded like undermining sanctions. For Delhi, they had been a non-negotiable necessity. “We are going to purchase the place our individuals’s wants are met,” India’s petroleum minister informed reporters in August 2025. The conflict of views turned vitality right into a wedge — one which Russia and China exploited to courtroom India extra carefully.
The China Plus One dilemma
For international enterprise, the fallout has been stark. The “China Plus One” technique — transferring some manufacturing away from China into different markets like India, Vietnam or Mexico took successful as US tariffs made Indian exports much less aggressive. Firms that had invested in India anticipating beneficial entry to the US market abruptly confronted larger prices and uncertainty.Some Indian economists warned that the tariff shock might gradual manufacturing development simply as India was positioning itself as a worldwide different to Chinese language provide chains. “If the US is unpredictable on tariffs, buyers will assume twice,” stated one Mumbai-based economist.Sharma underlined that “international coverage at all times relies on reliability as a lot as pursuits, and by tightening commerce whereas demanding alignment, Washington uncovered its unpredictability. For Indian policymakers, the message was clear: overreliance on the US carried dangers. By alienating India, Washington achieved the other of its intention, nudging New Delhi and Beijing towards dialogue.”
Hedging, not aligning
Regardless of the heat in Tianjin, India’s technique just isn’t a wholesale pivot to Russia and China. Safety tensions with Beijing stay unresolved after the 2020 Galwan clashes, and distrust alongside the Line of Precise Management lingers. Defence cooperation with the US from intelligence sharing to the Quad partnership continues in parallel.What has modified is India’s willingness to publicly hedge. In September 2025, that hedge was displayed in three acts: Trump’s June 17 name; Washington’s 27 August tariffs; and PM Modi’s 1 September SCO appearances. Collectively they confirmed how shortly private frictions and commerce measures can spill into the strategic area.
A sinking boat or a reset forward?
The story of PM Modi and Trump in 2025 is not only about two personalities falling out. It’s a case research in how transactionalism can undermine strategic belief. What started because the much-touted “bromance” of Houston now seems to be like a fragile association examined by ego, tariffs and oil.For India, partaking China on the SCO just isn’t about rejecting the US however increasing choices.Whether or not Delhi and Washington can patch the “sinking boat of commerce” stays to be seen. With indicators that Trump’s tariff fury is easing after Tianjin, there could also be area for a reset. However the episode has left its mark; India is extra prepared than earlier than to be seen with Moscow and Beijing, and Washington has realized that financial coercion can backfire in Asia’s most vital swing state.The SCO summit in Tianjin could also be remembered much less for ceremonial show than for what it revealed: a cautious but significant effort by Asia’s two largest nations to maneuver past rivalry and discover partnership. Whether or not the dragon and the elephant can actually discover their rhythm stays unsure, however with PM Modi and Xi clasping fingers after seven years, step one of this delicate choreography has undeniably begun.