NEW DELHI: The seat-sharing deal for the upcoming 2025 Bihar The meeting election revealed a refined however vital shift in inner energy dynamics throughout the Nationwide Democratic Alliance (NDA). For the primary time for the reason that early Nineties, the 2 principal companions — the Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)), led by chief minister Nitish Kumarand the Bharatiya Janata Celebration (BJP) — will contest 101 seats every in Bihar’s 243-seat meeting, whereas the Lok Janshakti Celebration (Ram Vilas) (LJP(RV)), led by Chirag Paswan, obtained 29 seats. For the primary time, the BJP has secured equal seat-sharing in Bihar, ending the long-standing custom of Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) enjoying the “massive brother.” This parity between BJP and JD(U) underscores how BJP has shifted from the “junior” to an equal (or maybe dominant) standing in Bihar’s ruling coalition — whereas persevering with to current Nitish because the face of stability.In the meantime, LJP(RV)’s allocation of 29 seats — although modest in absolute phrases — is considerably bigger than typical junior-ally shares and contains visibility-rich constituencies: for instance, in districts equivalent to Jamui, Hajipur and Khagaria, the place Dalit and youth demographics are robust.
The logic appears clear: BJP is hedging its wager—sustaining Nitish for his expertise and stability, whereas elevating Chirag as a long-term ally and doubtlessly a future energy centre.2020 fallout: When Chirag went soloThe backdrop to this shifting stability lies within the 2020 meeting election. In that election, JD(U) received simply 43 seats, down from 71 in 2015 elections. In the meantime, LJP fielded candidates by itself and acted as a vote-splitter. The results of this vote-cutting was a large drop within the JD(U)’s seat tally, which fell from 71 seats in 2015 to only 43 seats in 2020. This was the JD(U)’s lowest tally in years and resulted within the social gathering turning into the junior accomplice to the BJP for the primary time within the NDA coalition in Bihar.As Chirag famously declared in October 2020, “I’m Prime Minister Modi’s Hanuman… the PM lives in my coronary heart.” His solo marketing campaign was extensively seen as an effort to weaken JD(U) whereas sustaining heat towards the BJP.Nitish, for his half, responded with restraint. He welcomed the NDA’s total victory however couldn’t overlook how his social gathering’s decreased tally had shifted the inner arithmetic — paving the best way for BJP’s higher affect in coalition selections.Nitish’s declining arcNitish Kumar’s political journey has been outlined by his repute as “Sushasan Babu” — the administrator who as soon as dominated Bihar’s politics. However by 2020, JD(U)’s footprint had shrunk and its strike fee fell sharply.Now, in 2025, BJP seems to be pursuing a twin technique: preserve Nitish seen because the stabilizer and face of continuity, whereas additionally nurturing Chirag as a parallel energy centre. For BJP, that solves two issues without delay: one, it retains the organizational energy and governance credentials related to Nitish; two, it prepares for a future during which the LJP’s Dalit-youth base and rising profile could change into extra central. What’s at stake?For Nitish, the 2025 election is not only about retaining energy—it is about preserving relevance. If JD(U) fails to carry floor, Nitish could change into a symbolic chief inside his personal alliance somewhat than its fulcrum.For Chirag, the 29-seat allocation marks his political breakthrough. He revealed that his social gathering selected from a “pool of 38 seats” supplied by BJP, stressing “high quality over amount.” His negotiation expertise had been on full show through the seat-sharing talks: participating in a number of rounds with senior BJP and JD(U) leaders, he held agency till securing favorable phrases. Because of this, LJP(RV) emerged as the biggest junior ally within the NDA. Whereas BJP and JD(U) settled for 101 seats every, smaller allies — Jitan Ram Manjhi’s HAM and Upendra Kushwaha’s RLM — obtained solely six seats apiece.This distribution positions Chirag as a key participant in post-poll arithmetic, no matter how the NDA performs total.As for the BJP is anxious, the social gathering appears to be attempting to string the needle between coalition concord and long-term dominance. If Nitish stays on board, BJP retains stability; if Chirag’s LJP strengthens, BJP features leverage and a youthful, extra dynamic ally with attain into new caste and regional segments.Whether or not this triangular association can maintain itself by the marketing campaign — and past — will check the NDA’s cohesion like by no means earlier than. Whether or not Nitish and Chirag actually coexist throughout the identical alliance with out their ambitions colliding stays to be seen.