“The river Ganga flows to Bengal through Bihar. And the victory in Bihar, just like the river, has paved the best way for our victory in Bengal,” Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared after the NDA’s thumping victory in recently-concluded Bihar elections. The message left little ambiguity: Bengal is BJP‘s subsequent battlefied. As soon as a marginal participant within the state, the BJP now views Bengal as a winnable frontier. Congressin the meantime, delivered one in all its weakest performances in Bihar, managing to win simply six seats and alluring recent questions on its relevance in key electoral battlegrounds.And that’s the place Bengal 2026 turns into a much more difficult puzzle for the celebration. With Mamata Banerjee dominating the state and the BJP quickly increasing its footprint, the Congress now faces its most uncomfortable query but: in 2026, who’s its actual opponent — Mamata, its INDIA bloc companion who leaves little room for it in Bengal, or the BJP, whose rise threatens to erase it altogether? Squeezed: Congress’s shrinking house between TMC and BJPThe extent of Congress’s continued decline in relevance in Bengal turns into clear once you observe its trajectory throughout the final three meeting elections. In 2011, when Mamata Banerjee first swept the Disregarded of energy, Congress was nonetheless a significant companion within the coalition, profitable 42 seats and retaining affect throughout Murshidabad, Malda and pockets of North Bengal.5 years later, in 2016, regardless that it fought in alliance with the Left, Congress’ seat depend barely elevated to 44, however its vote share and organizational energy had been already waning.By 2021, the ground gave approach nearly completely. Congress contested 92 seats and managed to win simply 2, ending third or fourth in practically each constituency and slipping to a 3% vote share—its weakest efficiency in Bengal’s electoral historical past. The celebration was worn out in former strongholds like Malda City and Sujapur, the place the TMC and BJP cut up the anti-incumbency house between themselves.It’s this collapse that now frames the 2026 dilemma. BJP’s riseThe BJP’s development in Bengal has been one of the dramatic political expansions of the final decade. In 2016, the celebration received solely 3 seats.Within the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the celebration shocked many by bagging 18 out of 42 seats, a efficiency that instantly repositioned Bengal because the BJP’s most promising frontier outdoors the Hindi heartland.However by the point the 2021 meeting election arrived, the BJP had reworked itself into the state’s principal opposition, capturing 77 seats and securing practically 38% of the vote share.That is what makes 2026 a high-stakes equation for the Congress. If the BJP continues its present trajectory, Congress dangers being pushed out of the competition completely.Mamata’s solo intuitionIncluding to the Congress’s dilemma is Mamata Banerjee’s constant refusal to cede house or deal with the celebration as an equal stakeholder in Bengal. Her political intuition has all the time been solo-first, and he or she has signaled that repeatedly, each by her phrases and her actions.Within the run-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Mamata declared that the TMC would battle all 42 seats in Bengal alone, refusing to enter a seat-sharing association with the Congress and stating that the INDIA bloc was “just for Delhi, not Bengal.”
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Mamata Banerjee has additionally very overtly expressed dissatisfaction with the functioning of the INDIA bloc up to now and signaled her intent to take cost of the alliance if given the chance. “What can I do if they can’t run the present? I don’t lead the entrance. Those that are in management positions there ought to give it some thought. However nonetheless, I’m sustaining my connections with the regional and nationwide events,” Mamata had stated. “There are some who can’t tolerate me. If given the accountability, although I don’t want that, I can run it (INDIA bloc) from West Bengal. However I don’t need to keep away from Bengal. I used to be born right here and can die right here,” the West Bengal chief minister had added.Earlier this yr, Mamata Banerjee asserted that the Trinamool Congress will return to energy with a two-thirds majority within the 2026 meeting elections within the state and dominated out the potential of stitching any alliance with the Congress, based on the TMC’s mouthpiece. The mouthpiece ‘Jago Bangla’ reported that Banerjee made these remarks throughout a gathering of the TMC legislative celebration on Monday. In keeping with that report, Banerjee informed her legislators, “Trinamool will return to energy with a two-thirds majority in 2026. We do not want anybody’s assist. We’ll battle alone and win alone.”The seats the place Congress as soon as matteredPast vote share, Congress’s decline is most evident in areas it as soon as dominated.In 2016, Congress was nonetheless a recognizable pressure in Bengal. It received 44 seats, lots of them concentrated in Malda and Murshidabad — districts the place TMC struggled to interrupt by on the time. English Bazar, Chanchal, Sujapur, Beldanga, Kandi and Naoda had been nonetheless Congress floor, with functioning sales space networks and leaders voters recognized with.However by 2021, that map collapsed nearly in a single day. Congress received zero seats in Malda and simply two in Murshidabad, ending third or fourth in most constituencies the place it as soon as competed. TMC stuffed the house quickly. In the meantime, BJP concurrently entered blocks that neither celebration managed earlier than.What was aggressive turf in 2016 grew to become deserted land by 2021.2026 battle: A battle for house, or a battle for existence?All of this funnels into the query Bengal now forces on Congress: what does the celebration marketing campaign for in 2026? Is it aiming for seats, vote share, or just survival on the political map?As a result of the numbers go away little room to faux in any other case.TMC already occupies the incumbent’s house, controls the welfare narrative, and exhibits no intention for alliance. The BJP, then again, has managed to make important inroads in Bengal and is buoyed by its victory within the recently-concluded elections in Bihar, Delhi, Maharashtra and Haryana. Congress enters 2026 with no clear chief, community, or outlined opponent. The actual query, then, could now not be whether or not Congress ought to battle Mamata or the BJP. The query is whether or not the celebration has sufficient floor left to battle in any respect.