Regardless that the Supreme Court docket struck down a big portion of President Donald Trump‘s tariff agenda — with a choose later ordering the federal government to organize to probably pay billions of {dollars} in refunds to importers who paid the tariffs — customers should not count on to see any a reimbursement.
That is in accordance with the most recent CNBC CFO Council quarterly survey. Whereas 12 of the 25 chief monetary officers stated their firm plans to use for tariff refunds, none stated they intend to instantly share that cash with clients.
Six of these polled stated they didn’t plan to cross on any portion of the tariff refunds they may obtain, seven weren’t positive and 12 answered “not relevant.”
Ten of the executives within the C-suite stated they assume it might take a 12 months or longer to obtain reimbursement, and solely three of the CFOs anticipated reimbursement this 12 months. The opposite 12 CFOs stated they don’t plan to use for tariff refunds.
The CFO Council survey is a sampling of views from chief monetary officers at massive organizations throughout sectors of the U.S. economic system. CFO Council members took the survey between March 23 and April 2.
In the meantime, the authorized battle over Trump’s tariffs is much from over. The identical day the Supreme Court docket dominated in February that “reciprocal tariffs” had been unlawful, Trump introduced a brand new “international tariff” fee of 10% below a separate statute, Part 122 of the Commerce Act of 1974, for a interval of 150 days. He later stated he would enhance international tariffs to fifteen%.
US President Donald Trump speaks throughout a gathering with Chancellor Merz (CDU) on the White Home. Subjects embrace the battle in Iran, the tariff dispute between the EU and the USA, the Russian battle of aggression towards Ukraine and China coverage.
Kay Nietfeld | Image Alliance | Getty Photos
Tariffs are taxes on imports from international nations and are paid by U.S. entities that import the merchandise. Companies typically bear a few of the value and cross on the remaining to customers by greater costs. On this manner, tariffs have had an total inflationary impression on the economic system, economists say.
Even when corporations had been to obtain refunds, the CNBC CFO Council survey outcomes are “not a shock,” stated Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s.
After factoring within the hefty toll on U.S. companies, together with greater prices and provide chain changes to scale back tariff publicity, CFOs could also be pondering “that is simply compensation,” Zandi stated, “they’re going to maintain on to these [refunds].”
The Trump administration might strain corporations to cross these financial savings on, he added, “however that will probably be very tough to do.”
The place tariff rebate efforts stand
The president has floated the thought of placing some tariff income instantly within the fingers of Individuals, within the type of a tariff dividend verify. Nonetheless, any such broad-based profit program would require laws handed by Congress.
Each Democrats and Republicans have tried to capitalize on Trump’s tariff agenda forward of the 2026 midterm elections. No laws has been accepted but, though a number of tariff refund payments have been launched in Congress.
Final 12 months, Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo., launched the American Employee Rebate Act of 2025, which pitched a stimulus verify funded with tariff income. The Senate referred that invoice to the Committee on Finance, the place it stays.
In March of this 12 months, Sen. Martin Heinrich, D-N.M., launched one other invoice that might create a brand new tax rebate for these hit by greater prices for on a regular basis objects because of the now-defunct tariff regime. Heinrich’s invoice, dubbed the Tariff Refunds for Working Households Act, would faucet the $166 billion collected by the tariffs to fund the brand new rebate.
That laws has additionally been referred to the Committee on Finance.
Different efforts, together with the Trump Tariff Rebate Act launched by Rep. Tim Burchett, R-Tenn., and the American Shopper Tariff Rebate Act of 2026, launched by Rep. Henry Cuellar, D-Texas, are sitting in Home committees.
“The probability of tariff refunds passing in Congress nonetheless appears distant,” stated licensed monetary planner Stephen Kates, a monetary analyst at Bankrate.
“A Republican-backed invoice would all however admit that tariffs had been a coverage mistake, even when it might be initially fashionable to ship out checks,” he stated. “Democrats have little incentive to help such a measure forward of the midterms, for the reason that prices of tariffs and better gasoline costs are extensively related to Republicans.”