It has been over two years since prime Tamil actor Vijay launched his celebration, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK). But, with no electoral debut to this point, there’s little readability on the celebration’s potential vote share within the upcoming Tamil Nadu and Puducherry Meeting elections.
Inside the celebration, optimism runs excessive, with some officers informally projecting a vote share of round 25%. Outdoors, nevertheless, estimates range extensively. A bit of observers believes TVK may mirror the early efficiency of late Vijayakant’s DMDK, securing about 8–10% in its first outing. Others counsel the celebration may push nearer to fifteen%.
Predicting electoral outcomes in Tamil Nadu has by no means been easy, notably in Meeting elections. The entry of TVK and of Mr. Vijay, a political greenhorn with Chief Ministerial ambitions, has solely difficult the arithmetic additional.
The celebration skipped the final Lok Sabha polls and the February 2025 Erode (East) Meeting bypoll. Consequently, its precise help base stays untested. Its determination to go it alone has set the stage for a four-cornered contest in Tamil Nadu.
Was this strategic restraint—avoiding early electoral publicity—a deliberate transfer by Mr. Vijay to maintain his political capital intact forward of a high-stakes debut?
“Mr. Vijay is aware of what he’s doing. Like in his motion pictures, he’s going by the script in politics as properly,” stated Professor G. Palanithurai, former dean of College students’ Welfare at Gandhigram Rural Institute.
There’s a idea that Dravidian rhetoric has killed intellectualism within the State. Professor Palanithurai, who focuses on grass-roots democracy, stated he has been visiting campuses, and the shortage of political discourse in greater instructional establishments has led to the youth gravitating in the direction of the actor over time.
Apart from, corruption has been regularised. The ruling DMK and Opposition AIADMK accuse one another of corruption however by no means take motion in opposition to one another when in energy. “Mr. Vijay has sensed it. That’s the reason he’s specializing in anti-corruption to draw voters. Vijayakanth additionally fought on the anti-corruption theme, however Mr. Vijay is extra widespread than Vijayakanth. He attracts enormous crowds, particularly youth. Even the ruling DMK cannot usher in such crowds voluntarily,” he stated.
Whereas crediting the Dravidian events with their developmental insurance policies, each social and industrial, the academician, nevertheless, stated politics has now grow to be corrupt. “Mr. Vijay is a movie persona. He understands the psychology of the plenty. The rule of regulation has now grow to be the ruling celebration’s regulation. That’s the reason he takes on the ruling governments,” he added.
“On the flip facet, in contrast to (actor-turned-Chief Ministers) MGR and Jayalalithaa, Mr. Vijay is just not near the rank and file. He’s in isolation on a regular basis. Additionally, the TVK’s second line of management is just not spectacular. Nonetheless, Tamil Nadu’s peculiar politics lacks a collective management as Dravidianism has proven the way in which to herding. Mass attraction counts,” he asserted.
In opposition to the ideologically inclined DMK and politically masterful late M. Karunanidhi, it was the private charisma and political acumen of MGR and J. Jayalalithaa that had stored the AIADMK in energy for an extended time than its arch-rival. Mr. Vijay, along with his mass attraction, appears to be step by step filling the charismatic leaders’ position.
However is that ample to penetrate the world of politics? “Reputation in cinema would not at all times deliver votes. We won’t draw a parallel between Mr. Vijay and MGR. MGR had a robust maintain within the celebration, and he broke ranks whereas he was the treasurer of the DMK. He campaigned and labored exhausting for all these years. He additionally introduced the underprivileged and the subaltern into his motion pictures. The titles would resonate with communities, like Vivasayi, Padagotti and Meenava Nanban,” stated P. Ramajayam, an academician.
“Grass-roots politics requires social and political mobilization, involving a number of teams like minorities and subalterns”, he stated. “Mr. Vijay’s reputation appears to be greater among the many youth. However to this point, he has not been examined electorally. He’s assured and desires solely optimistic outcomes,” he added.
Lengthy-time political observers really feel that aside from the mass attraction, the celebration wants social and political mobilization. The TVK ought to have a power of about 300 to 400 cadre per sales space to safe round 100 votes every. If the celebration garners 15% of votes, Mr. Vijay would have a future as a politician.
“Mr Vijay is definitely a big crowd puller, and the crowds are natural. Solely two leaders don’t pay for crowds—(Naam Tamilar Katchi’s) Seeman and Mr. Vijay,” stated R. Kannan, biographer of former Chief Ministers CN Annadurai and MGR.
Requested if Mr. Vijay would succeed, he says, “Could 4 (election counting date) will give the reply.”
Printed – April 07, 2026 05:58 pm IST