NEW DELHI: Does Aam Aadmi Get together not need congress to win in Kerala meeting polls?INDIA bloc’s lack of ability to type a unified entrance forward of the Kerala meeting polls was uncovered spectacularly after Arvind Kejriwal‘s Aam Aadmi Get together (AAP) launched successive lists of candidates, signaling its intent to combat a full-scale battle throughout all 140 seats in Kerala.The southern state, not too long ago rechristened Keralam in a nod to its cultural and linguistic heritage, now stands as the most recent battleground the place AAP’s ambitions conflict head-on with Congress.Kerala’s electoral rhythm has lengthy resisted continuity, with voters principally denying incumbents a second straight time period. That sample locations Congress, the principal opposition, in a seemingly favorable place within the race for energy in Thiruvananthapuram.But, AAP’s assertive entry provides a twist. Is Kejriwal’s social gathering merely increasing its footprint, or subtly complicating Congress’s path to energy? With restricted organizational depth within the Malayalam-speaking state, AAP might not maintain important relevance, however with Arvind Kejriwal and his workforce rising from the shadow of the Delhi liquor case, their presence might nonetheless, if solely marginally, alter the political equation in Kerala.The ruling Left, additionally a part of the broader opposition fold, stays Congress’s main rival, whereas the BJP trails as a distant third. On this triangular contest, AAP might not considerably dent the Left or the BJP, however it might affect the margins the place elections are sometimes determined, by chipping away at Congress’s vote share simply sufficient to change the ultimate verdict.Is Delhi’s revenge being served in Kerala?2025 started with the startling defeat of the Aam Aadmi Get together in Delhi. Earlier, the reluctant allies, AAP and Congress had determined to contest individually, with Congress, having little to lose, launching a belligerent marketing campaign towards the ruling Arvind Kejriwal-led dispensation.The grand outdated social gathering additionally discovered a gap because the Kejriwal cupboard got here beneath the scanner within the Delhi liquor coverage case, with businesses just like the CBI and ED probing the matter. A number of senior AAP leaders, together with Kejriwal and his deputy Manish Sisodia, confronted authorized hassle, resulting in a part the place the federal government functioned beneath the chief ministership of social gathering colleague and loyalist Atishi.Whereas AAP’s defeat finally got here by the hands of the BJP, Congress additionally performed a major, if oblique, function in stopping its INDIA bloc from securing a fourth consecutive time period.The “vote-cutting” issue proved essential in a number of constituencies, together with New Delhi, the place Sandeep Dikshit, son of former chief minister Sheila Dikshit, was fielded towards Kejriwal. Although he completed a distant third, the votes he secured contributed to Kejriwal’s defeat and helped the BJP’s Parvesh Verma emerge as a “big killer.”Hypothetically, had these votes gone to Kejriwal, the end result might need been completely different. The AAP’s tally fell sharply from 62 to 22 seats, whereas Congress as soon as once more didn’t open its account.The herculean efforts that introduced AAP and Congress into an organized marriage to counter the robust power of the BJP within the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, regardless of years of political bitterness, unraveled as soon as once more within the 2025 meeting polls, reflecting a well-recognized sample of rivalry.AAP, which rose from the India Towards Corruption motion led by Anna Hazare, had straight challenged the federal government led by Sheila Dikshit and went on to ascertain a dominant maintain over Delhi, lowering Congress from a ruling power to whole insignificance.The Congress, as soon as beneath Sheila Dikshit’s robust management for 15 years, has didn’t win a single seat within the final two meeting elections (2020 and 2025), and has additionally drawn blanks in three consecutive Lok Sabha polls (2014, 2019, and 2024).Simply as Congress dented AAP’s prospects within the Delhi meeting, AAP might now impression Congress’s possibilities in states like Kerala, because it seeks to take care of its relevance inside the nationwide opposition area.Coalition to confrontLok Sabha allies turned Meeting rivals, the battle between the estranged companions was something however swish.At one rally, Arvind Kejriwal didn’t maintain again: “The issue with Congress is its sense of entitlement. They suppose they’ve a divine proper to steer the opposition simply due to their previous, even once they have zero presence on the bottom. They aren’t preventing the BJP; they’re preventing regional events that truly defeat the BJP. In Delhi, Congress is nothing however a ‘vote-cutter’ meant to assist the BJP.”Congress, in flip, capitalized on the troubles surrounding the Delhi excise coverage case, hitting AAP the place it harm essentially the most.Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra led rallies throughout Delhi, branding Kejriwal and different AAP leaders as “corrupt.” In a single such rally, Rahul Gandhi remarked: “Kejriwal ji retains mendacity. The way in which Narendra Modi lies, Kejriwal lies too. There is not a lot distinction between them. However I’ll inform you one factor—Kejriwal might be extra crafty and complicated than even the Prime Minister in how he misleads individuals.”Weeks later, when a Delhi court docket discharged Kejriwal and his colleagues within the liquor coverage case, Congress alleged it was half of a bigger BJP technique of “Congress-mukt Bharat.”Congress spokesperson Pawan Khera attacked the BJP, calling it an “Icchadhari naag” (shape-shifting serpent), and accused it of utilizing central businesses as political instruments.Kejriwal retaliated sharply, questioning Congress’s claims and concentrating on its management: “Kejriwal went to jail. Did Robert Vadra go to jail? Sanjay Singh went to jail. Did Rahul Gandhi go to jail? Did Sonia Gandhi go to jail? What’s Congress saying? Does it don’t have any disgrace?”To decrease Congress’s footprint?Congress, the grand outdated social gathering with roots within the independence motion, has been grappling with vulnerability for over a decade.Past Delhi, it has steadily misplaced floor throughout a number of states, permitting the BJP to develop its dominance in nationwide politics. This decline has additionally opened area for different gamers to problem its place inside the opposition.Amongst states like West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, and Kerala that are going to polls, Kerala seems to be the one the place Congress nonetheless has a practical likelihood of returning to energy by dislodging the Left. That makes it an important battleground.In such a state of affairs, AAP’s entry might be seen as an try and dent Congress additional, making a scenario the place it should combat for relevance whereas additionally limiting Congress’s progress.Kejriwal’s Kerala push, with candidates throughout constituencies, might assist place AAP as a extra severe nationwide participant. The state provides a comparatively low-risk alternative, permitting AAP to contest with out heavy stakes whereas preserving each BJP and Congress in verify.To repeat Gujarat in Kerala?From Delhi and Punjab, Arvind Kejriwal has established a agency political foothold, efficiently operating a full-fledged authorities in Punjab beneath social gathering colleague Bhagwant Mann, whereas additionally having ruled the Union Territory of Delhi for over a decade with a commanding presence within the Meeting.Nonetheless, the journey of the Aam Aadmi Get together has not been restricted to Delhi alone. Its regular, typically oblique growth has positioned Kejriwal as an rising various in nationwide politics. He has additionally made inroads into Gujarat, lengthy thought-about a bastion of Narendra Modi.In its Gujarat debut, AAP secured over 13 % of the vote, considerably impacting Congress. Within the 2017 Meeting elections, Congress had secured 42.2 % of the vote, placing up a robust combat towards the BJP after Modi’s shift to nationwide politics. Nonetheless, AAP’s entry in 2022 disrupted that stability, lowering Congress’s vote share to 27.7 %.Whereas AAP made a powerful debut with round 13 % votes, the BJP registered solely a marginal improve—from about 50 % to 53 %.An identical sample might unfold in Kerala, the place AAP might not emerge as a dominant power however might affect the end result by reducing into Congress’s vote share, probably benefiting the incumbent Left—very like it did in Gujarat.To extend AAP’s footprint?The AAP, since its start in 2013 out of Anna motion, has been in a relentless effort to develop its footprint throughout India. So why not Kerala?For Arvind Kejriwal, ambition has by no means been confined to Delhi. After dismantling the long-standing dominance of Sheila Dikshit, he shortly stepped onto the nationwide stage, taking over Narendra Modi within the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. The competition in Varanasi might have led to defeat, however it marked Kejriwal’s arrival as a significant challenger.He secured over 20 % of the vote, sufficient to push Congress to a distant third in Varanasi. Its candidate, Ajay Rai, managed solely round 7 %.The Kerala foray, then, is much less an outlier and extra a continuation of that journey, an try to check the social gathering’s attain within the far south.Past its strongholds in Delhi and Punjab, AAP has steadily ventured into new political terrains.In Gujarat, it emerged as a major participant with over 13 % of the vote, largely at Congress’s expense. In Goa, it secured almost 7 % and gained two seats, as soon as once more reducing into Congress’s base.The social gathering has even marked its presence in Jammu and Kashmir, with Mehraj Malik successful from Doda.From the northernmost reaches of J&Ok to AAP’s a newfound curiosity within the southern fringe of Kerala.Rahul, Priyanka and Tharoor’s KeralaKejriwal’s entry into Kerala carries symbolic weight, particularly for Congress, for whom the state has, lately, develop into an important political anchor. In moments of disaster, each Gandhi household scions, Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, turned to Kerala.In 2019, when Rahul Gandhi misplaced his very personal Amethi seat, it was Wayanad that delivered him a powerful victory. He returned to Wayanad once more in 2024, successful comfortably, although he ultimately selected to retain Rae Bareli.“I used to be a stranger to you and but you believed in me. You embraced me with unbridled love and affection. It did not matter which political formation you supported, it did not matter which group you had been from or which faith you believed in or which language you spoke,” Rahul stated.“I’m unhappy, however I’m consoled as a result of my sister Priyanka will probably be there to symbolize you. I’m assured that she is going to do a wonderful job of being your MP if you happen to resolve to provide her the chance. My central dedication to each you and the individuals of Rae Bareli is that we’ll combat and defeat the hatred and violence being unfold within the nation,” he added.Stepping other than Wayanad, Rahul Gandhi thanked the voters and paved the best way for Priyanka Gandhi Vadra’s electoral debut from the identical constituency. She went on to safe a powerful victory within the bypolls, additional cementing the household’s reference to the state.After her win, Priyanka stated, “I thank the individuals of Wayanad for giving me the honour to symbolize them.It is a testomony to the truth that my brother labored laborious there, their love for him, and their belief in me. I really feel it is an awesome honor, and I’ll respect it absolutely.”Past the Gandhis, Kerala can be residence to one among Congress’s most outstanding nationwide faces, Shashi Tharoor, a three-time MP from Thiruvananthapuram.Towards this backdrop, Kejriwal’s Kerala push is not only one other electoral experiment, it’s a transfer that might unsettle established equations and complicate the political calculus for the state’s entrenched gamers.Kejriwal vs Rahul?After the formation of the INDIA bloc, the BJP-led NDA retained energy on the Centre, with Rahul Gandhi changing into Chief of Opposition within the Lok Sabha.Whereas Rahul rose to that place, questions over his management ambitions endured. Throughout the opposition bloc, variations started surfacing, and AAP’s stance typically appeared much less aligned with him.AAP, at numerous factors, has tried to undertaking Kejriwal as a possible nationwide challenger to Narendra Modi, subtly sidelining Rahul Gandhi’s prospects.With repeated electoral setbacks for Congress and AAP’s aggressive growth, the competition inside the opposition area might not be simply towards the BJP, but in addition amongst its personal key gamers.