Kyiv (Ukraine): Russian forces superior deeper into Ukraine over the previous week, claiming to have captured eight villages alongside a battlefront stretching 1,250km (780 miles).
“Right now, the Russian armed forces totally maintain the strategic initiative,” Russian President Vladimir Putin informed army commanders on Tuesday, coinciding along with his 73rd birthday.
In accordance with the Russian defence ministry, the cities now underneath Russian management embody Otradnoye in Kharkiv, Mayskoye, Siversk Maly, Kuzminovka and Fedorovka in Donetsk, Verbovoye in Dnipropetrovsk and Novovasylivka and Novohryhorivka in Zaporizhia.
Putin claimed Russian forces have taken practically 5,000 sq. kilometres (1,930 sq. miles) of Ukraine to date this 12 months. The Institute for the Examine of Battle (ISW), a Washington-based assume tank, independently estimated the determine at 3,434 sq km (1,325 sq miles).
Putin additionally mentioned Russian troops management two-thirds of Kupiansk, a metropolis in northern Kharkiv. The ISW estimated Russian occupation at 14 % of the town.
Regardless of the claims, Russia’s positive factors signify lower than 1 % of Ukraine and have come at a heavy human value.
Russian Troop Losses
On Monday, the Ukrainian authorities initiative ‘I Need to Stay’, which affords Russian troopers protected passage in the event that they give up, reported that 281,550 Russian troopers had been killed, wounded or lacking in motion within the first eight months of 2025, citing leaked army paperwork.
Of those, 86,744 had been confirmed killed, whereas virtually 34,000 had been lacking and probably useless.
The losses are corresponding to these suffered by Russian forces that overran Poland and Prussia in 1939, the initiative mentioned, however “fashionable Russian generals have been unable to seize Pokrovsk for a number of years”.
With a pre-war inhabitants of 60,000, Pokrovsk has been underneath Russian assault for over a 12 months. Russian forces additionally tried to seize Dobropillia, 17km (11 miles) northwest of Pokrovsk, however had been repelled.
Ukraine claimed Russia misplaced 178 sq km (69 sq miles) and no less than 3,500 personnel because the finish of August.
Each Russia and Ukraine not often launch precise figures of casualties.
The Air Battle Intensifies
From October 2 to eight, Moscow launched 1,523 drones and 93 missiles into Ukrainian airspace, concentrating on main cities behind the entrance line.
5 folks died on Saturday after practically 500 drones distracted air defences, permitting a ballistic missile and 13 cruise missiles by means of. Two nights earlier, one other giant mixed strike occurred.
“We managed to shoot down solely half of the missiles,” mentioned Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Ukraine destroyed over 10,000 missiles and drones in September alone. Analysts highlighted that ballistic missiles, with their terminal pace, are tough to intercept. Patriot missiles have traditionally destroyed lots of them, however in current weeks, the interception price has dropped. Kyiv stopped 1 of 14 and three of 21 incoming missiles in September.
Monetary Instances reported that ballistic missile interception fell from 37 % in August to six % in October. Regional consultants steered that Ukraine could be conserving interceptors and that Russia might have realized the areas of Ukraine’s Patriot methods, concentrating on gaps.
Russia Targets Ukraine’s Fuel Amenities
Forward of winter, Russia attacked Ukrainian fuel infrastructure, together with Naftogaz, the state vitality firm. “A good portion of our services has been broken. A number of the destruction is vital,” mentioned Naftogaz CEO Sergii Koretskyi.
Ukraine plans to extend fuel imports by 30 % this winter, mentioned Power Minister Svitlana Hrynchuk. Zelenskyy instructed electrical energy firms to inventory backup tools in opposition to future assaults.
Ukraine Strikes Again
Ukraine intensified its aerial marketing campaign, targetting Russian gas and industrial capability.
Andriy Kovalenko, head of Ukraine’s Heart for Countering Disinformation, reported that as much as 38 % of Russia’s refining capability was disabled at sure factors in September. Russian gasoline imports from Belarus quadrupled to 49,000 tonnes, and diesel to 33,000 tonnes.
“Gasoline manufacturing decreased by a million tonnes, and the deficit reached 20 % of home wants,” mentioned Kovalenko, including that “China, which receives Russian oil at a 40 % low cost, sells gasoline again with a 40 % markup. Because of this, Moscow loses on each fronts”.
Ukrainian drones struck Kirishinefteorgsintez Oil Refinery close to Leningrad for the third time this 12 months. Two days later, a refinery in Bryansk area was hit. The Sverdlov Plant, one in every of Russia’s largest explosives producers, was additionally focused.
Ukraine hit the Feodosia oil terminal in Crimea and the Tuapse refinery throughout the Black Sea, in addition to Tyumen Refinery, 2,000km (1,240 miles) east of Ukraine.
Ukraine’s Home Defence Manufacturing
Ukraine makes use of low-cost drones to achieve deep targets. Defence manufacturing has elevated to $20bn this 12 months, a tenfold rise since 2022. Zelenskyy inspired Western funding, providing joint ventures.
“Our manufacturing potential for drones and missiles alone will attain $35bn subsequent 12 months,” he mentioned on the Worldwide Defence Industries Discussion board in Kyiv.
Tomahawks And Diplomacy
US President Donald Trump has thought of Ukraine’s request for Tomahawk missiles with a 2,500km vary.
Russia signalled peace prospects had been shrinking. Deputy International Minister Sergey Ryabkov mentioned efforts had been being “largely exhausted by the actions of opponents and supporters of the warfare”, primarily Europeans.
Since Trump’s election, Russia has portrayed him as an inexpensive interlocutor and European allies as obstacles to peace. Putin warned that supplying Tomahawks would hurt relations.
“This can result in the destruction of our relationships, or no less than the constructive developments which have emerged in these relations,” he mentioned.
Trump informed White Home reporters, “I’m not seeking to escalate that warfare.”
Stories on October 1 from Reuters and The Wall Road Journal indicated that the US would supply Ukraine with intelligence for strikes deep inside Russia, elevating additional concern in Moscow.
Russian forces advance on the bottom. Ukraine hits faraway targets. Missile interceptions decline. Power infrastructure suffers. Diplomatic pressure simmers. The warfare continues to stretch throughout the continent, leaving both sides calculating losses, positive factors and the lengthy street forward.