New Delhi: A small group of Indian commerce negotiators has landed in Washington this week. Their activity is pressing. They have to strive, as soon as once more, to untangle the long-pending India-U.S. commerce deal that has seen too many rounds, too many delays and now stares down a tough deadline, August 1.
The clock is ticking.
U.S. President Donald Trump, now in his second time period on the White Home, has already fired off tariff letters to a protracted listing of nations. Japan, Brazil, South Korea, Thailand and Cambodia, every has acquired a notice – explaining in clear phrases why new tariffs are coming. India has not acquired one. That’s solely as a result of New Delhi and Washington are nonetheless speaking.
But when there isn’t any deal earlier than the deadline, the letter may arrive.
The place Are The Talks Caught?
Washington needs India to decrease its tariffs on American agricultural and dairy items. Milk, wheat, poultry and genetically modified soy, all are on the desk. New Delhi, nevertheless, isn’t transferring.
India’s place has been clear. Its farm sector, dairy cooperatives, meals safety structure, they can’t take a success.
Union Minister for Commerce and Business Piyush Goyal has stated any settlement should profit each side. Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan has echoed that line. No stress. No compromise on farmers. No backdoor trade-offs.
To date, India has saved these sectors out of most commerce offers, together with with the UK and Australia. The identical applies right here.
Indian Staff Lands in Washington
Led by Particular Secretary Rajesh Agarwal, the Indian delegation is again within the U.S. capital, hoping to interrupt the impasse. The purpose is to discover a components, one thing that may be signed off earlier than Trump’s August 1 deadline kicks in and the USA begins slapping tariffs throughout the board.
Goyal says talks are transferring “at velocity”. Chatting with reporters, he confirmed that the Indian aspect is concentrated on crafting an settlement that works for each nations. There may be nonetheless time. Barely two weeks. However the message is that the window won’t keep open for lengthy.
Trump’s Tariff Playbook
Trump is enjoying hardball once more. Twenty-five nations have already been hit along with his new tariff regime. Canada was slapped with 35 p.c. Others have seen greater. However in India’s case, the U.S. president has dropped a telling trace.
Whereas talking about his world tariff technique, he stated that “key buying and selling companions” might even see decrease tariffs, round 15 to twenty p.c. And never each nation will get a proper letter. It’s a sign that if India clinches the deal, it could escape the harshest penalties.
Why India Gained’t Budge On Dairy & Agriculture
Behind India’s robust stance lies a deeper concern. In line with a current report from the World Commerce Analysis Initiative (GTRI), any wide-scale entry of subsidised U.S. dairy or poultry items may injury India’s rural economic system. Not solely small farmers however meals safety itself might be hit.
The report warns towards opening the gates to American grain or genetically modified soybeans. As soon as these merchandise enter Indian markets, they might displace native produce and crush pricing buildings. This isn’t solely about commerce margins, that is concerning the long-term sustainability of Indian agriculture.
Can A Deal Nonetheless Occur?
If all goes properly in Washington, negotiators might sew collectively a restricted package deal. It won’t be a full-blown overseas commerce settlement (FTA). However it might be sufficient to keep away from Trump’s tariff stick. Sufficient to indicate progress. Sufficient to maintain the commerce lanes open.
A senior official stated {that a} breakthrough remains to be potential earlier than August 1. However it is determined by what both sides is prepared to present, and what every insists on warding off the desk.
Till then, all eyes stay on the U.S. capital.