Any evaluation of the heinous terrorist assault at Pahalgam should start with an outright condemnation and a deep expression of remorse for the lack of harmless lives in essentially the most brutal method. It should additionally embody a agency resolve to avenge this atrocity in opposition to the perpetrators from Pakistan, who, unable to take their very own nation ahead, search to tug others down.
The 22 April 2025 terrorist assault in Pahalgam marks a major escalation in Pakistan-sponsored terrorism in Kashmir. The shift of focus from south of the Pir Panjal (Rajouri-Poonch) again to the Valley suggests a recalibration by Pakistan’s ISI and its affiliated terror outfits. The assault occurred amidst a doubtlessly excessive vacationer season, G20 legacies, and up to date political outreach efforts in J&Okay – all of which threatened Pakistan’s relevance within the evolving Kashmir narrative. The strategic symbolism of the occasion, subsequently, is immense.
Pakistan’s probably strategic intent was to reignite terrorism and revive the fast-dwindling separatist sentiment within the Valley, thereby disrupting the socio-economic normalization and democratic engagement that the Authorities of India has been efficiently selling. The reassertion of Pakistan’s relevance within the Kashmir discourse, amid India’s diplomatic features within the World South, was most likely a key driver of this transfer. One other goal was to destabilize India’s progressive and visibly profitable peace-building efforts, significantly after the profitable Meeting elections in J&Okay.
There may be ample motive to consider that Pakistan’s rising inside discontent – together with Baloch unrest, TTP assaults, and financial crises – additionally motivated the regime to regulate home narratives by means of exterior aggression. Nevertheless, essentially the most heinous facet of the assault was the deliberate focusing on of Hindu male vacationers, a calculated try to ignite communal sentiment inside India. It’s simple that directions to this impact have been probably handed all the way down to the terrorists to be adopted implicitly.
Many have requested me whether or not there was a linkage or similarity between this assault and the 7 October 2023 Hamas assault on a peaceable gathering close to the Gaza-Israel border, which left 1,200 innocents useless and 250 taken hostage, thus triggering the continuing Gaza battle. I don’t consider there was a transnational joint intent right here, although the Pahalgam assault exhibited a number of similarities. A go to by Hamas components to Pakistan had earlier been reported. In my current writings and talks, I had typically concluded there was a powerful chance of a copycat occasion of this nature occurring simply throughout the LoC or worldwide border on our facet. The fast-improving state of affairs in Kashmir and the rising footprint of tourism ought to have served as a warning. The strategic influence of such an occasion, significantly with the deliberate use of spiritual profiling, has deeply struck India’s societal psyche.
From India’s strategic safety perspective, there’s a direct want to revive public confidence and guarantee there isn’t a repeat of such assaults, particularly in high-footfall areas. The strategic goal have to be to retain and strengthen management over the narrative of stability and growth in Kashmir.
The main focus of our diplomats
Our diplomacy should make sure that Pakistan’s claims obtain no worldwide traction, mission full resilience, and put together for a calibrated response or retaliation, totally aware of its future implications.
There’s a vary of strategic choices obtainable to India. The Cupboard Committee on Safety (CCS) convened and issued 5 directives, primarily within the diplomatic area. The choice to carry in abeyance or droop the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 is a daring one, whilst we await the technical ramifications.
It is very important make clear: India has not revoked the treaty however suspended it, pending a change in Pakistan’s angle in direction of Indian calls for. The waters of the three western rivers of the Indus system – the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab – are meant for Pakistan’s unique use. Nevertheless, hypothesis stays about how precisely Pakistan might be affected and to what extent India can regulate the waters. As a water-deficient state, Pakistan will at all times stay on edge concerning India’s functionality to regulate water stream.
The CCS’s strategy has not been comfortable, as some might argue based mostly on the absence of quick navy motion. It must be clear to Indian residents and to analysts demanding knee-jerk responses that the Authorities has chosen a mature course. Holding motion in abeyance whereas awaiting the opportune second retains the adversary in a state of uncertainty.
When it launched the Pahalgam assault, Pakistan’s deep state had anticipated an Indian response. Reserve formations have been shortly moved into deployment areas. In a financially constrained nation, sustaining such formations at excessive readiness is a major problem. Our response doesn’t must be confined to a slim time window. It will possibly – and may – be executed when the fullest success is assured.
Renewed vigilance required within the valley
Within the interim, we should keep a powerful and vigilant posture in J&Okay to disclaim Pakistan any additional inroads, particularly with the restricted variety of terrorists at the moment working there.
Throughout this era, enhanced troop presence and proactive counter-terror operations within the Valley should proceed, with higher coordination beneath the Unified Command system. A tighter synergy between the Intelligence Bureau (IB), Analysis and Evaluation Wing (RAW), navy intelligence, and native J&Okay police models is crucial and there’s no various for that.
Reviving the worldwide narrative round Pakistan’s assist for terrorism have to be a strategic precedence. Leveraging platforms just like the FATF, which has beforehand performed a major function, and countering Pakistani narratives at worldwide assume tanks have to be pursued with renewed vigour.
Whereas upgrades in surveillance, fencing, and drone-based monitoring alongside the LoC have been applied, our technical capabilities to trace transnational actions stay usually missing and have to be addressed urgently.
We can not permit the Civic Outreach and Improvement Push to falter beneath the load of present sentiments. A government-directed and carefully monitored initiative is required to drive this ahead, accompanied by delicate politico-military dealing with. Accelerating key socio-economic schemes in Kashmir will assist deny terrorists the situations to regenerate a fertile recruitment floor.
Controlling public panic, avoiding communal fallout, and projecting a agency but accountable nationwide response are paramount. The media – each nationwide and native – will play a important function. A heightened sense of accountability have to be instilled in anybody dealing with data, as rumour-mongering and divisive narratives are prone to proliferate.
This may increasingly even be an acceptable second to show our focus to frame communities and others affected by battle. Their function is essential.
There is a chance to unite border residents, safety forces, and civil society in a shared entrance in opposition to terrorism. India can reaffirm its picture as a accountable energy by placing the fitting steadiness between firmness and restraint.
(The author is a Member of the Nationwide Catastrophe Administration Authority, Chancellor of the Central College of Kashmir, and Former GOC of the Srinagar-based 15 Corps.)
Disclaimer: These are the non-public opinions of the creator