New Delhi: A storm is brewing in Azerbaijan. Baku, as soon as assured in its rising international ties, now finds itself nervously glancing over its shoulder in direction of India. The strain started after Azerbaijan stood shoulder to shoulder with Pakistan throughout Operation Sindoor. Whereas New Delhi was putting terror camps, Islamabad launched a determined counter. And in that second, Turkey and Azerbaijan overtly took the latter.
India has not forgotten. And now, concern has crept into the statements popping out of Azerbaijan. Fahad Mammadov, a political skilled from Baku, has began issuing unusual public remarks. His voice carries a mixture of defiance and fear. “Even when India stops shopping for our oil,” he mentioned, “our financial system won’t undergo.”
However the timing of this remark says greater than the phrases. It comes proper after India signalled it may rethink its billion-dollar oil imports from the Caspian nation.
Mammadov is aware of what’s coming. He even admitted that India is increasing its diplomatic attain to exert strain on international locations like Pakistan and now, by affiliation, Azerbaijan. “India needs symbolic and regional victories. However attempting accountable Pakistan’s pals received’t work,” he mentioned.
His frustration is clear. So is his concern. India and Azerbaijan commerce over $1 billion yearly. Most of that’s oil. Shedding India as a purchaser would harm, it doesn’t matter what Mammadov claims. He says Azerbaijan can reroute its oil, however provides, nearly as a warning, that India may face penalties for breaking contracts.
The fact is Azerbaijan is nervous. Not nearly commerce however about penalties. And that nervousness is starting to indicate in its public posturing.
India, in the meantime, has moved nearer to Armenia, Azerbaijan’s arch-enemy. A latest report by Indian Aerospace Defence Information revealed that Armenia signed a $720 million deal to purchase Indian weapons, together with the highly effective Akash-1S air defence system.
The message to Baku is loud and clear. And it has rattled them.
Retired Turkish Brigadier Basic Hüseyin Karoz referred to as this weapons deal a critical risk to Azerbaijan. He even warned his nation to stay alert.
Azerbaijan has been locked in a decades-long territorial dispute with Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh area. India’s rising ties with Yerevan are a strategic blow.
And Azerbaijan is aware of it. So now, it lashes out – hoping phrases will undo what actions have set in movement.
However New Delhi stays quiet. Watching. Calculating. Ready. And the message from India’s facet is unstated however clear – you selected your facet. Be prepared for what comes subsequent.